Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 120.5 Under |
| Money | SPU -110 MRMK -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRMK +11 | 85 | Lost |
| Massey | SPU -1.0 (-12.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 114.8 (-29.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRMK -0.7 (-10.3) | 126.1 (-41.1) | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -0.5 (-11.5) | 123.2 (-38.2) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRMK -0.4 (-10.6) | 121.0 (-36.0) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRMK -0.7 (-10.3) | 123.0 (-38.0) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | MRMK 67 – 59 SPU |
| Jan 11, 2026 | SPU 76 – 63 MRMK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SPU | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-16 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 14-6 |
| Home | 6-6 | 8-5 |
| Away | 6-10 | 9-8 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.1 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 64.2 |
| Massey | -4.5 (#242) | -2.1 (#200) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#239) | 0.01 (#179) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.14 (#248) | -0.09 (#183) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#247) | 0.516 (#151) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SPU | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 28.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 6.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 22.2% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 36.6% | 19.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 61.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.4% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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