Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | SPU -125 MRMK +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +13 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | SPU -2.9 (+10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.4 (+7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -2.1 (+10.9) | 133.5 (+5.5) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -1.4 (+11.6) | 134.0 (+5.0) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -1.2 (+11.8) | 130.4 (+8.6) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -2.0 (+11.0) | 130.0 (+9.0) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | MRMK 67 – 59 SPU |
| Jan 24, 2025 | MRMK 48 – 37 SPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SPU | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-12 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 17-3 |
| Home | 13-1 | 11-0 |
| Away | 4-10 | 9-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 66.5 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#253) | -5.3 (#246) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#229) | 0.16 (#162) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.16 (#244) | -0.05 (#175) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#224) | 0.503 (#165) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SPU | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.3% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 28.3% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 27.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.4% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 65.4% | 57.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 38.3% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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