Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | NCSU -120 TEX +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEX +2 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | NCSU -1.6 (-3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.1 (-30.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -0.6 (-2.6) | 156.1 (-22.1) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -1.6 (-3.6) | 160.7 (-26.7) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -1.4 (-3.4) | 159.7 (-25.7) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -1.6 (-3.6) | 160.8 (-26.8) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 27, 2025 | TEX 102 – 97 NCSU |
| Dec 5, 2024 | TEX 63 – 59 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-6 | 12-5 |
| Away | 6-4 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 81.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 15.1 (#33) | 13.5 (#41) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.12 (#42) | 1.91 (#49) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.92 (#38) | 2.90 (#40) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#44) | 0.534 (#95) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 38.8% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.69 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 13.1% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 35.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 34.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 13.4% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 30.1% |
Game Analysis
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