Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | TEX +105 NCSU -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEX +5 | 199 | Won |
| Massey | NCSU -9.4 (+14.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.1 (+34.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -3.2 (+8.2) | 154.7 (+44.3) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -6.1 (+11.1) | 155.0 (+44.0) | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -7.3 (+12.3) | 155.1 (+43.9) | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -5.7 (+10.7) | 155.8 (+43.2) | 24% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 18, 2026 | TEX 68 – 66 NCSU |
| Dec 5, 2024 | TEX 63 – 59 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEX | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-5 | 11-6 |
| Away | 5-6 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.7 | 83.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#72) | 17.1 (#15) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.52 (#224) | 2.02 (#45) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#189) | 3.48 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.400 (#317) | 0.624 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEX | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 51.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 41.7% |
| REB / G | 43.7 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 14.3 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 61.1% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 38.9% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 32.0% | 32.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.8% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 30.8% |
Game Analysis
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