Betting Lines
| Spread | LAF -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | LEH +100 LAF -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LEH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LEH +39 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | LEH -0.7 (+38.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.7 (-5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAF -0.6 (+39.6) | 138.0 (-5.0) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LEH -0.4 (+38.6) | 135.7 (-2.7) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LEH -0.4 (+38.6) | 135.7 (-2.7) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LAF -0.0 (+39.0) | 135.6 (-2.6) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | LEH 78 – 69 LAF |
| Jan 25, 2026 | LEH 64 – 59 LAF |
| Feb 22, 2025 | LAF 78 – 70 LEH |
| Mar 8, 2024 | LEH 76 – 61 LAF |
| Feb 24, 2024 | LEH 71 – 63 LAF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LEH | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-19 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 7-11 |
| Home | 8-5 | 10-6 |
| Away | 3-14 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.7 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -8.7 (#307) | -6.1 (#262) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.60 (#307) | -1.43 (#294) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.30 (#316) | -1.51 (#279) |
| RPI | 0.433 (#294) | 0.426 (#304) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LEH | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 28.9 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 6.7 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 19.5% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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