Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | SMU -320 STAN +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +24 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -7.4 (+16.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.2 (-9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -6.0 (+18.0) | 149.1 (-3.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -6.8 (+17.2) | 146.2 (-0.2) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -6.5 (+17.5) | 148.4 (-2.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -5.9 (+18.1) | 148.3 (-2.3) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | STAN 95 – 75 SMU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | STAN 73 – 68 SMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 11-9 |
| Home | 13-6 | 17-3 |
| Away | 7-4 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 12.4 (#44) | 8.3 (#70) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.97 (#50) | 1.83 (#55) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.38 (#53) | 1.77 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#60) | 0.578 (#52) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 37.7% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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