Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | STAN -120 SMU +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STAN +5 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -3.5 (+8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.1 (-13.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -1.6 (+6.6) | 148.9 (-7.9) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -2.6 (+7.6) | 147.1 (-6.1) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -1.4 (+6.4) | 149.6 (-8.6) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -1.7 (+6.7) | 150.3 (-9.3) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | STAN 95 – 75 SMU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SMU 85 – 61 STAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 13-7 |
| Home | 17-3 | 13-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 6.4 (#87) | 13.1 (#40) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.39 (#69) | 2.01 (#49) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.34 (#88) | 2.36 (#53) |
| RPI | 0.558 (#71) | 0.573 (#53) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 55.2% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 38.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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