Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSD -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | UCSD -1000 SAC +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +10 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | UCSD -13.8 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.4 (-20.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -10.0 (+0.0) | 136.9 (-18.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -14.6 (-4.6) | 137.8 (-19.8) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 19, 2023 | UCSD 83 – 52 SAC |
| Nov 13, 2022 | SAC 65 – 55 UCSD |
| Nov 21, 2021 | UCSD 71 – 56 SAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSD | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-5 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 3-15 |
| Home | 13-2 | 5-11 |
| Away | 12-2 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.5 | 63.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.0 | 73.4 |
| Massey | 4.2 (#94) | 1.3 (#155) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#151) | -0.47 (#231) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#128) | -0.59 (#222) |
| RPI | 0.812 (#14) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSD | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 39.3% |
| 3PT% | 40.6% | 26.7% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.88 | 0.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 12.3% | 23.2% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 1.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.8% | 41.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.7% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 80.4% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.2% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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