Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | PUR -1000 USC +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +18 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -12.5 (+5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (+15.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -12.5 (+5.5) | 148.4 (+13.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -11.7 (+6.3) | 144.9 (+17.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -11.7 (+6.3) | 147.1 (+14.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -11.6 (+6.4) | 148.6 (+13.4) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | PUR 69 – 64 USC |
| Mar 14, 2025 | PUR 76 – 71 USC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 17-18 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 7-13 |
| Home | 14-2 | 12-7 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 76.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 19.0 (#14) | 9.7 (#62) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.42 (#7) | 1.65 (#58) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.40 (#8) | 2.36 (#52) |
| RPI | 0.666 (#3) | 0.564 (#66) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.6% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.3% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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