Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | PUR -700 USC +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +5 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -8.6 (-3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.5 (-3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -7.7 (-2.7) | 148.6 (-1.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -7.3 (-2.3) | 145.2 (+1.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -7.8 (-2.8) | 149.3 (-2.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -7.5 (-2.5) | 150.0 (-3.0) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | PUR 69 – 64 USC |
| Feb 8, 2025 | PUR 90 – 72 USC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 17-18 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 7-13 |
| Home | 14-2 | 12-7 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 76.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 17.9 (#16) | 9.3 (#62) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.83 (#20) | 1.38 (#72) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.65 (#17) | 2.11 (#62) |
| RPI | 0.624 (#12) | 0.539 (#101) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.6% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.6% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.0% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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