Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | UL +225 MRSH -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +11 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | MRSH -6.0 (+17.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.2 (+2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRSH -4.4 (+15.4) | 141.0 (+6.0) | 36% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRSH -4.3 (+15.3) | 140.6 (+6.4) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -4.2 (+15.2) | 141.3 (+5.7) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -4.1 (+15.1) | 141.3 (+5.7) | 32% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 30, 2023 | MRSH 75 – 61 UL |
| Feb 5, 2023 | UL 77 – 67 MRSH |
| Nov 24, 2021 | MRSH 93 – 79 UL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 12-6 |
| Home | 5-12 | 14-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.9 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -10.6 (#328) | -1.4 (#185) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.61 (#312) | -0.22 (#196) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.04 (#315) | -0.32 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#279) | 0.501 (#177) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 65.4% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.2% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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