Betting Lines
| Spread | ISU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | ISU -240 ARIZ +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ISU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +17 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | ISU -2.2 (+14.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.2 (-2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -3.6 (+13.4) | 151.1 (-0.1) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -3.2 (+13.8) | 150.4 (+0.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -3.6 (+13.4) | 150.2 (+0.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -3.9 (+13.1) | 151.7 (-0.7) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | ARIZ 82 – 80 ISU |
| Mar 3, 2026 | ARIZ 73 – 57 ISU |
| Jan 28, 2025 | ARIZ 86 – 75 ISU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ISU | ARIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 14-6 |
| Home | 15-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 5-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.3 | 82.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 73.3 |
| Massey | 19.0 (#11) | 20.0 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.75 (#24) | 2.54 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.23 (#30) | 3.45 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.603 (#25) | 0.588 (#39) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ISU | ARIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 40.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 36.8% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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