Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | MASS +145 LUC -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MASS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +23 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | LUC -0.4 (-22.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.8 (-25.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -0.9 (-22.1) | 148.7 (-23.7) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MASS -0.4 (-23.4) | 147.8 (-22.8) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -0.5 (-22.5) | 147.7 (-22.7) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -0.6 (-22.4) | 147.9 (-22.9) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2024 | LUC 79 – 78 MASS |
| Feb 15, 2023 | LUC 64 – 62 MASS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MASS | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 25-12 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-8 | 17-1 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 1-6 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.7 | 69.4 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#195) | 1.8 (#133) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#215) | 0.86 (#102) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#202) | 1.05 (#100) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#230) | 0.539 (#101) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MASS | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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