The black queen chants the funeral march, the cracked brass bells will ring / To summon back the fire witch to the court of the crimson king "The Court of the Crimson King" - King Crimson
(2) Tennessee Volunteers
78 – 65
FINAL Neutral Conference NCAA Tournament
(3) Kentucky Wildcats
Southeastern Conference · Lucas Oil Stadium (Neutral) · March 28, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread TENN -5.5 Home covered
O/U 145.5 Under
Money TENN -215 / UK +180
Model Predictions
Spread Total TENN win
Actual TENN +13 143 Won
Massey TENN -2.9 (+10.1) — —
Massey Totals — 145.4 (-2.4) —
Bradley-Terry — — 69% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 80% ✓
Baseline Plus ML TENN -3.3 (+9.7) 145.3 (-2.3) 67% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ TENN -3.2 (+9.8) 146.0 (-3.0) 63% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML TENN -3.9 (+9.1) 145.1 (-2.1) 64% ✓
Baseline ML TENN -3.6 (+9.4) 146.8 (-3.8) 60% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 8, 2026 UK 74 – 71 TENN
Jan 17, 2026 UK 80 – 78 TENN
Feb 12, 2025 UK 75 – 64 TENN
Jan 29, 2025 UK 78 – 73 TENN
Mar 9, 2024 UK 85 – 81 TENN

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TENN UK
Overall 30-8 24-12
Conference 12-6 10-8
Home 16-1 15-3
Away 6-5 4-6
Neutral 8-2 5-3
Last 5 4-1 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 74.0 84.4
Avg Pts Against 63.1 77.2
Massey 21.7 (#6) 18.8 (#13)
Bradley-Terry 4.28 (#3) 3.46 (#8)
W. Bradley-Terry 5.45 (#3) 4.08 (#10)
RPI 0.640 (#6) 0.623 (#10)
Shooting & Four Factors TENN UK
FG% 45.5% 48.1%
3PT% 34.5% 37.4%
REB / G 36.5 38.4
OREB / G 11.4 10.0
AST / TO 1.47 1.57
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 53.0% 55.9%
TOV% 16.2% 14.9%
ORB% 35.5% 28.2%
FT Rate 26.4% 25.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 44.6% 50.2%
Opp TOV% 17.8% 14.2%
DRB% 69.9% 74.0%
Opp FT Rate 21.4% 21.8%

Game Analysis

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