Don't talk to me about your big, big heroes "Kelly's Heroes" - Black Grape
Ohio Valley Conference · Western Hall · February 21, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread MORE -8.5 Away covered
O/U 143.5 Under
Money WIU +320 / MORE -410
Model Predictions
Spread Total WIU win
Actual MORE +22 140 Lost
Massey MORE -8.2 (-13.8) — —
Massey Totals — 145.4 (-5.4) —
Bradley-Terry — — 8% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 6% ✓
Baseline Plus ML MORE -7.9 (-14.1) 141.9 (-1.9) 32% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ MORE -7.7 (-14.3) 141.3 (-1.3) 21% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML MORE -8.0 (-14.0) 141.1 (-1.1) 22% ✓
Baseline ML MORE -8.5 (-13.5) 142.6 (-2.6) 25% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 23, 2026 MORE 71 – 66 WIU
Feb 15, 2025 WIU 72 – 67 MORE
Jan 17, 2025 MORE 51 – 47 WIU
Feb 23, 2024 MORE 78 – 57 WIU
Jan 27, 2024 MORE 64 – 50 WIU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings WIU MORE
Overall 5-26 20-13
Conference 1-19 15-5
Home 4-11 11-2
Away 1-15 7-10
Neutral 0-0 2-1
Last 5 1-4 4-1
Streak L5 L1
Avg Pts For 63.2 72.0
Avg Pts Against 78.5 75.5
Massey -19.2 (#362) -8.0 (#290)
Bradley-Terry -3.53 (#362) -0.57 (#224)
W. Bradley-Terry -4.39 (#363) -1.11 (#246)
RPI 0.363 (#361) 0.492 (#205)
Shooting & Four Factors WIU MORE
FG% 39.4% 44.5%
3PT% 30.5% 32.6%
REB / G 31.2 35.6
OREB / G 10.1 12.3
AST / TO 0.66 0.96
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 44.4% 49.5%
TOV% 17.5% 19.0%
ORB% 27.9% 36.1%
FT Rate 25.3% 27.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 54.1% 50.4%
Opp TOV% 15.1% 15.5%
DRB% 65.4% 63.4%
Opp FT Rate 25.3% 26.4%

Game Analysis

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