Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | LUC -120 UNT +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +2 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | UNT -12.3 (+10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.4 (-27.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -7.8 (+5.8) | 139.4 (-13.4) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -8.1 (+6.1) | 134.0 (-8.0) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -9.5 (+7.5) | 139.3 (-13.3) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2021 | LUC 57 – 49 UNT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-24 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 9-9 |
| Home | 6-10 | 12-5 |
| Away | 1-10 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.8 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 68.2 |
| Massey | -9.4 (#319) | 2.9 (#113) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.45 (#313) | 0.36 (#136) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.23 (#314) | 0.53 (#130) |
| RPI | 0.200 (#230) | 0.500 (#76) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 56.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 47.6% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.67 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 66.0% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 46.2% |
| FT Rate | 30.3% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 41.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 27.2% |
| DRB% | 58.5% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.4% | 50.0% |
Game Analysis
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