Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -23.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 169.5 Under |
| Money | UCF -10000 FAMU +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +37 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -23.0 (+14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.1 (-12.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -12.4 (+24.6) | 152.5 (+4.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -16.3 (+20.7) | 150.9 (+6.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -13.8 (+23.2) | 155.4 (+1.6) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 22, 2023 | UCF 69 – 56 FAMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | FAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-5 | 8-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.7 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#243) | -14.3 (#352) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.13 (#310) | -2.02 (#337) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.67 (#309) | -2.93 (#339) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#229) | 0.062 (#337) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | FAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 34.9% |
| 3PT% | 47.2% | 21.4% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.5% | 38.5% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 38.7% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 38.6% | 33.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.5% | 58.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.4% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 45.4% |
Game Analysis
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