Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | UVM -3000 BUF +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVM +11 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | UVM -9.3 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.9 (+7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVM -10.5 (+0.5) | 142.7 (+2.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVM -5.6 (+5.4) | 136.8 (+8.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVM -6.5 (+4.5) | 136.5 (+8.5) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVM -7.4 (+3.6) | 138.7 (+6.3) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 18, 2025 | BUF 94 – 90 UVM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVM | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 4-14 |
| Home | 13-3 | 6-9 |
| Away | 7-8 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.5 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.0 | 81.6 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#260) | -6.9 (#299) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#207) | -0.41 (#215) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#213) | -2.07 (#284) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#201) | 0.532 (#138) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVM | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.2% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.2% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 21.3% | 16.2% |
| FT Rate | 16.0% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 60.4% | 65.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.0% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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