Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | BUF +115 UVM -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +4 | 184 | Won |
| Massey | BUF -4.5 (-0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.4 (+20.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -2.3 (+1.7) | 147.3 (+36.7) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -5.7 (-1.7) | 148.8 (+35.2) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -6.1 (-2.1) | 148.3 (+35.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -5.0 (-1.0) | 147.7 (+36.3) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 20, 2024 | UVM 78 – 67 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 12-4 |
| Home | 7-8 | 13-3 |
| Away | 8-6 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.5 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 4.0 (#107) | 6.7 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.78 (#53) | 2.63 (#15) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.61 (#50) | 5.08 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#146) | 0.557 (#108) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 39.7% | 41.8% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 46.7% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.1% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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