Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | NDSU -115 SIU -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NDSU +7 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | NDSU -4.2 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.9 (+23.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NDSU -4.5 (+2.5) | 153.3 (+23.7) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NDSU -4.3 (+2.7) | 148.3 (+28.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NDSU -5.1 (+1.9) | 147.9 (+29.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NDSU -5.3 (+1.7) | 151.7 (+25.3) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 19, 2024 | SIU 69 – 44 NDSU |
| Dec 20, 2023 | SIU 76 – 63 NDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NDSU | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 10-10 |
| Home | 13-1 | 8-6 |
| Away | 10-5 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.7 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#152) | 4.5 (#101) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#142) | -0.06 (#195) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.44 (#119) | 0.03 (#181) |
| RPI | 0.588 (#85) | 0.486 (#195) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NDSU | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.5% | 54.3% |
| 3PT% | 19.6% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 44.5 |
| OREB / G | 16.3 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.0% | 57.9% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 13.0% |
| ORB% | 38.3% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 42.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.5% | 10.3% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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