Betting Lines
| Spread | LIB -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | UVM +2200 LIB -100000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIB +6 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | UVM -0.2 (-6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 176.4 (-24.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIB -1.3 (-4.7) | 150.4 (+1.6) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVM -0.2 (-6.2) | 156.9 (-4.9) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVM -0.2 (-6.2) | 155.2 (-3.2) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIB -1.7 (-4.3) | 157.0 (-5.0) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 19, 2023 | LIB 71 – 61 UVM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVM | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 17-3 |
| Home | 13-3 | 14-2 |
| Away | 8-7 | 11-3 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 8.3 (#60) | 8.0 (#64) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.42 (#28) | 1.59 (#76) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.25 (#21) | 3.20 (#43) |
| RPI | 0.646 (#28) | 0.751 (#2) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVM | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.7% | 54.7% |
| 3PT% | 43.8% | 47.4% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 2.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.3% | 66.2% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 10.7% |
| ORB% | 22.7% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 64.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.1% | 29.1% |
Game Analysis
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