Betting Lines
| Spread | HOW -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | HOW -160 BU +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BU +7 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | HOW -7.3 (-14.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (-7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOW -3.9 (-10.9) | 137.3 (-6.3) | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOW -3.9 (-10.9) | 134.1 (-3.1) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOW -4.2 (-11.2) | 135.9 (-4.9) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -4.6 (-11.6) | 138.0 (-7.0) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2023 | HOW 64 – 53 BU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOW | BU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-6 | 12-4 |
| Away | 3-11 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.7 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#154) | -6.6 (#288) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#82) | -2.25 (#326) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.12 (#79) | -3.10 (#317) |
| RPI | 0.600 (#60) | 0.367 (#331) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOW | BU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 41.4% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 23.0% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 16.1% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.4% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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