Betting Lines
| Spread | TEM -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | UTSA +440 TEM -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEM +6 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | TEM -13.5 (+7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.9 (-12.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEM -11.4 (+5.4) | 137.4 (-3.4) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEM -9.8 (+3.8) | 138.4 (-4.4) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEM -12.1 (+6.1) | 138.3 (-4.3) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TEM -12.0 (+6.0) | 139.0 (-5.0) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | TEM 76 – 57 UTSA |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UTSA 88 – 79 TEM |
| Mar 13, 2024 | TEM 64 – 61 UTSA |
| Mar 10, 2024 | TEM 84 – 82 UTSA |
| Feb 18, 2024 | TEM 83 – 77 UTSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTSA | TEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-25 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 8-10 |
| Home | 2-12 | 10-6 |
| Away | 2-12 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.9 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -16.1 (#354) | 0.5 (#155) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.03 (#334) | 0.25 (#143) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.63 (#331) | 0.36 (#140) |
| RPI | 0.429 (#305) | 0.502 (#174) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTSA | TEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.5% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 27.5% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.7% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 14.0% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 32.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 61.6% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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