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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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13–7 on winners spread MAE 8.6 20 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Boston College @ Notre Dame	+13.2	144.3	88%	60–78	✓
Texas Southern @ Mississippi Valley State	-17.3	139.3	6%	82–53	✓
American University @ Loyola Maryland	+4.0	140.2	64%	73–54	✗
Alabama State @ Alcorn State	-4.0	150.4	36%	65–67	✗
Wofford @ Furman	+7.2	138.0	74%	81–62	✗
Bethune-Cookman @ Southern	+5.0	134.6	68%	53–69	✓
East Texas A&M @ UT Rio Grande Valley	+15.6	150.4	92%	55–57	✓
Nicholls @ Incarnate Word	+2.2	145.8	58%	88–82	✗
SE Louisiana @ Stephen F. Austin	+1.5	122.2	55%	66–59	✗
Norfolk State @ Morgan State	-12.0	160.5	14%	74–78	✗
Maryland Eastern Shore @ South Carolina State	+17.3	146.2	94%	64–78	✓
Delaware State @ North Carolina Central	+3.0	150.9	61%	72–75	✓
Coppin State @ Howard	+15.0	149.8	91%	75–90	✓
Alabama A&M @ Jackson State	+14.7	143.3	91%	93–103	✓
Northwestern State @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	+10.1	146.5	82%	64–73	✓
LSU New Orleans @ Lamar	+16.5	143.5	93%	68–62	✗
McNeese @ Houston Christian	-12.4	134.3	13%	75–59	✓
Campbell @ Elon	+10.4	133.7	83%	68–81	✓
Florida A&M @ Grambling	+7.8	136.9	76%	72–79	✓
Villanova @ Xavier	+2.3	153.6	58%	63–69	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.