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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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37–18 on winners spread MAE 9.7 55 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Duke @ Syracuse -20.6 145.0 3% 83–54 ✓
Missouri @ Tennessee +8.7 134.7 78% 81–85 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Presbyterian +9.5 153.9 80% 64–75 ✓
High Point @ Radford -3.6 145.7 37% 78–75 ✓
Winthrop @ Charleston Southern -1.7 161.4 44% 83–65 ✓
Cincinnati @ UCF +1.5 144.4 55% 93–83 ✗
Rice @ East Carolina +4.6 141.1 66% 73–60 ✗
Louisville @ Boston College -14.6 149.7 9% 84–58 ✓
George Mason @ George Washington -2.9 135.2 39% 53–50 ✓
Rhode Island @ Fordham -2.9 158.9 39% 79–80 ✗
Duquesne @ Richmond -2.6 130.2 41% 68–73 ✗
Valparaiso @ Indiana State +3.1 168.3 61% 62–80 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Missouri State -5.4 138.6 31% 66–61 ✓
Navy @ Boston University +1.0 131.0 54% 65–87 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Lafayette +4.8 138.2 67% 71–58 ✗
American University @ Bucknell +3.2 143.2 61% 49–71 ✓
South Alabama @ Coastal Carolina -7.3 126.6 25% 84–59 ✓
UL Monroe @ Georgia State +7.4 149.4 75% 64–97 ✓
Texas State @ Old Dominion -5.0 144.8 33% 64–75 ✗
Troy @ James Madison -0.6 136.7 48% 61–64 ✗
Louisiana @ Georgia Southern +7.3 148.3 75% 82–83 ✓
Cleveland State @ Northern Kentucky -2.6 130.7 41% 75–85 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Robert Morris +13.3 140.3 89% 56–71 ✓
Wright State @ Purdue Fort Wayne +6.3 163.6 72% 64–87 ✓
Lipscomb @ West Georgia -13.9 140.3 10% 76–67 ✓
Chattanooga @ Wofford +2.6 148.4 59% 79–70 ✗
Western Carolina @ Furman +19.1 142.8 96% 75–84 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ The Citadel -14.0 129.6 10% 76–61 ✓
Queens University @ Central Arkansas -6.8 148.8 27% 63–47 ✓
Mercer @ Samford +12.8 163.6 88% 79–100 ✓
Tulsa @ Memphis +22.9 149.3 98% 71–83 ✓
West Virginia @ TCU -2.4 124.0 41% 60–65 ✗
Tulane @ UTSA -0.2 151.6 49% 61–60 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Evansville -0.9 136.7 47% 68–59 ✓
Illinois State @ UIC +3.6 156.1 63% 81–79 ✗
North Alabama @ Austin Peay -7.4 143.1 25% 74–64 ✓
Illinois @ Rutgers -9.6 162.2 19% 73–82 ✗
Creighton @ Providence -3.5 141.8 38% 80–69 ✓
Colorado @ Utah +6.5 147.5 72% 59–72 ✓
SMU @ Virginia Tech -8.7 150.1 22% 81–75 ✓
Belmont @ Bradley +8.9 160.4 79% 80–77 ✗
Villanova @ DePaul -4.7 150.0 33% 59–49 ✓
Arkansas State @ Marshall -4.7 147.8 33% 72–77 ✗
Arkansas @ Texas +6.6 144.1 73% 78–70 ✗
LSU @ Georgia +7.9 142.0 76% 62–81 ✓
Colorado State @ New Mexico +7.8 152.2 76% 65–87 ✓
Nebraska @ Washington -2.4 142.9 41% 86–72 ✓
NC State @ California +1.0 142.9 53% 62–74 ✓
Wake Forest @ Stanford +3.9 136.1 64% 79–73 ✗
NJIT @ Maine +14.9 126.2 91% 74–78 ✓
UAlbany @ Bryant +12.3 161.7 87% 68–63 ✗
North Carolina A&T @ Charleston +17.0 163.0 94% 63–66 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Binghamton -3.3 154.5 38% 54–66 ✗
UNC Wilmington @ Delaware -4.8 159.2 33% 77–67 ✓
Towson @ Stony Brook -6.9 131.6 26% 66–59 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.