In North Carolina way back in the hills, there lived my pappy and he had him a still. "White Lightning" - The Big Bopper
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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18–6 on winners spread MAE 8.7 24 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Northern Iowa @ Murray State -3.7 137.8 37% 74–67 ✓
Alabama State @ Mississippi Valley State -20.4 139.1 3% 79–56 ✓
Jackson State @ Bethune-Cookman +3.8 143.3 63% 84–71 ✗
Lehigh @ Bucknell +6.5 146.9 72% 50–67 ✓
Alcorn State @ Florida A&M +3.3 136.0 62% 76–85 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff -0.4 169.3 49% 75–61 ✓
McNeese @ SE Louisiana -6.7 135.6 27% 88–82 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ East Texas A&M -2.9 129.1 39% 76–74 ✓
Coppin State @ South Carolina State +19.8 135.4 96% 57–87 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Grambling +5.7 145.1 70% 48–70 ✓
Nicholls @ LSU New Orleans -8.1 154.7 23% 78–62 ✓
Lamar @ Northwestern State -0.3 129.0 49% 75–65 ✓
Incarnate Word @ UT Rio Grande Valley +5.4 149.4 69% 66–60 ✗
Duke @ Virginia -16.3 125.3 7% 80–62 ✓
Morgan State @ North Carolina Central +8.0 163.8 77% 92–78 ✗
Delaware State @ Norfolk State +10.8 147.9 84% 84–96 ✓
Houston Christian @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +9.8 142.2 81% 62–68 ✓
Kansas State @ Utah +2.5 148.5 59% 69–74 ✓
Texas Southern @ Southern +8.5 141.0 78% 57–66 ✓
Arizona @ Baylor +0.3 156.0 51% 74–67 ✗
Villanova @ UConn +5.4 143.8 69% 59–66 ✓
Jacksonville @ Florida Gulf Coast +3.4 137.7 62% 56–72 ✓
Austin Peay @ Bellarmine -4.8 145.8 33% 68–94 ✗
Miami (OH) @ Eastern Michigan -5.8 153.7 30% 66–76 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.