← All models
Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
26–9 on winners
spread MAE 10.2
35 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oklahoma
@
Florida
|
+15.1 | 154.8 | 91% | 63–85 | ✓ |
Texas A&M
@
Mississippi State
|
+0.5 | 142.3 | 52% | 54–70 | ✓ |
Purdue
@
Michigan State
|
+2.1 | 145.5 | 58% | 66–75 | ✓ |
Syracuse
@
Pittsburgh
|
+13.8 | 153.4 | 90% | 69–80 | ✓ |
Loyola Chicago
@
Davidson
|
+3.9 | 143.7 | 64% | 77–69 | ✗ |
North Florida
@
Stetson
|
-6.9 | 169.4 | 26% | 79–71 | ✓ |
Central Arkansas
@
Queens University
|
+14.0 | 148.2 | 90% | 72–89 | ✓ |
West Georgia
@
North Alabama
|
+18.3 | 148.9 | 95% | 62–80 | ✓ |
Lipscomb
@
Eastern Kentucky
|
-5.1 | 152.5 | 32% | 57–66 | ✗ |
Western Michigan
@
Buffalo
|
-0.2 | 149.4 | 49% | 97–64 | ✓ |
Northern Illinois
@
Akron
|
+24.7 | 158.6 | 99% | 63–73 | ✓ |
Kent State
@
Bowling Green
|
-6.8 | 136.1 | 27% | 91–84 | ✓ |
Central Michigan
@
Ohio
|
+5.4 | 152.8 | 69% | 82–84 | ✓ |
Ball State
@
Toledo
|
+6.5 | 160.2 | 72% | 66–67 | ✓ |
Colorado
@
Iowa State
|
+17.4 | 143.6 | 94% | 65–79 | ✓ |
Texas Tech
@
TCU
|
-9.6 | 138.2 | 19% | 66–69 | ✗ |
Butler
@
Xavier
|
+6.8 | 154.3 | 73% | 63–76 | ✓ |
Illinois
@
Wisconsin
|
+2.5 | 161.9 | 59% | 74–95 | ✓ |
Air Force
@
Wyoming
|
+9.6 | 126.9 | 81% | 62–69 | ✓ |
Tennessee State
@
UT Martin
|
+1.8 | 157.1 | 56% | 86–75 | ✗ |
Houston
@
Arizona State
|
-13.1 | 133.3 | 12% | 80–65 | ✓ |
Seton Hall
@
Marquette
|
+20.8 | 133.3 | 97% | 56–80 | ✓ |
Kansas
@
BYU
|
-0.9 | 147.8 | 47% | 57–91 | ✗ |
Virginia Tech
@
Boston College
|
-0.7 | 146.1 | 48% | 36–54 | ✗ |
Nevada
@
Colorado State
|
+3.0 | 139.6 | 61% | 71–79 | ✓ |
South Carolina
@
LSU
|
+4.6 | 138.8 | 66% | 67–81 | ✓ |
Minnesota
@
UCLA
|
+13.3 | 129.3 | 89% | 64–61 | ✗ |
Fresno State
@
San Diego State
|
+21.5 | 141.5 | 97% | 60–83 | ✓ |
Temple
@
Charlotte
|
-3.3 | 155.9 | 38% | 72–78 | ✗ |
Massachusetts
@
VCU
|
+18.9 | 147.6 | 96% | 51–80 | ✓ |
American University
@
Army
|
+1.1 | 144.0 | 54% | 69–76 | ✓ |
Lafayette
@
Holy Cross
|
+1.6 | 135.6 | 56% | 69–74 | ✓ |
Wofford
@
VMI
|
-3.9 | 141.9 | 36% | 82–43 | ✓ |
Richmond
@
La Salle
|
+5.0 | 143.2 | 68% | 63–58 | ✗ |
Nebraska
@
Penn State
|
+0.2 | 150.9 | 51% | 72–89 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.