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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
7–4 on winners
spread MAE 10.1
11 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oklahoma
@
UConn
|
+3.3 | 150.9 | 62% | 59–67 | ✓ |
Xavier
@
Illinois
|
+5.0 | 163.0 | 68% | 73–86 | ✓ |
Bryant
@
Michigan State
|
+19.2 | 152.6 | 96% | 62–87 | ✓ |
Liberty
@
Oregon
|
+4.8 | 140.5 | 67% | 52–81 | ✓ |
Dayton
@
Chattanooga
|
-1.4 | 156.7 | 45% | 72–87 | ✗ |
McNeese
@
Purdue
|
+6.7 | 141.5 | 73% | 62–76 | ✓ |
Bradley
@
George Mason
|
+4.5 | 133.9 | 66% | 75–67 | ✗ |
Arkansas
@
St. John's
|
+5.7 | 144.3 | 70% | 75–66 | ✗ |
Michigan
@
Texas A&M
|
+0.7 | 142.9 | 53% | 91–79 | ✗ |
Drake
@
Texas Tech
|
+9.0 | 129.9 | 79% | 64–77 | ✓ |
Creighton
@
Auburn
|
+11.3 | 152.3 | 85% | 70–82 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.