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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
15–1 on winners
spread MAE 9.1
16 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Utah State
@
UCLA
|
+3.5 | 146.5 | 63% | 47–72 | ✓ |
Omaha
@
St. John's
|
+18.6 | 150.1 | 95% | 53–83 | ✓ |
UC San Diego
@
Michigan
|
+2.6 | 143.4 | 59% | 65–68 | ✓ |
UNC Wilmington
@
Texas Tech
|
+16.2 | 148.6 | 93% | 72–82 | ✓ |
Baylor
@
Mississippi State
|
-1.6 | 151.9 | 44% | 75–72 | ✓ |
Robert Morris
@
Alabama
|
+22.6 | 169.4 | 98% | 81–90 | ✓ |
Lipscomb
@
Iowa State
|
+12.7 | 145.3 | 87% | 55–82 | ✓ |
Colorado State
@
Memphis
|
-0.9 | 150.3 | 47% | 78–70 | ✓ |
Mount St. Mary's
@
Duke
|
+31.0 | 140.9 | 100% | 49–93 | ✓ |
Vanderbilt
@
Saint Mary's
|
+4.3 | 139.4 | 65% | 56–59 | ✓ |
North Carolina
@
Ole Miss
|
+0.5 | 158.3 | 52% | 64–71 | ✓ |
Grand Canyon
@
Maryland
|
+15.6 | 152.0 | 92% | 49–81 | ✓ |
Norfolk State
@
Florida
|
+25.0 | 152.9 | 99% | 69–95 | ✓ |
Troy
@
Kentucky
|
+13.0 | 152.2 | 88% | 57–76 | ✓ |
New Mexico
@
Marquette
|
+4.2 | 154.3 | 65% | 75–66 | ✗ |
Akron
@
Arizona
|
+15.8 | 167.9 | 93% | 65–93 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.