Come on down and meet your maker. Come on down and take a stand. "The Stand" - The Alarm
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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47–9 on winners spread MAE 9.9 56 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Navy @ North Carolina +13.0 156.3 88% 61–73 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Delaware +10.4 147.7 83% 70–81 ✓
NJIT @ Drexel +2.0 146.4 57% 43–75 ✓
Towson @ James Madison -0.1 129.3 50% 75–81 ✗
New Haven @ Seton Hall +26.4 120.8 99% 45–68 ✓
New Hampshire @ Providence +21.5 162.2 97% 66–98 ✓
UT Martin @ Florida State +8.4 163.8 78% 73–87 ✓
Radford @ South Carolina +21.2 165.0 97% 58–87 ✓
Princeton @ Iona +15.2 158.5 92% 69–89 ✓
Old Dominion @ Xavier +4.0 146.7 64% 69–99 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Detroit Mercy +1.9 160.2 57% 72–62 ✗
Jacksonville @ George Mason +11.6 131.8 85% 57–79 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Longwood +17.3 127.8 94% 83–82 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Kent State +13.7 173.6 89% 78–93 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Charleston Southern +1.3 185.6 55% 91–103 ✓
East Carolina @ UNC Wilmington +12.7 144.1 88% 60–85 ✓
Boston University @ Columbia +10.2 155.2 82% 49–54 ✓
Hampton @ Boston College +16.7 131.8 94% 52–63 ✓
Holy Cross @ Brown +0.5 139.6 52% 49–68 ✓
Saint Francis @ Lehigh +21.7 153.2 98% 62–79 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Georgia Tech +10.3 168.5 82% 66–68 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Morgan State +6.3 166.4 72% 79–73 ✗
Winthrop @ Arkansas +6.5 165.0 72% 83–84 ✓
Alcorn State @ LSU +36.6 158.5 100% 81–107 ✓
Austin Peay @ Ole Miss +8.9 141.5 79% 65–72 ✓
Montana @ Texas A&M +1.9 167.3 57% 81–86 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ DePaul +15.8 151.3 92% 62–93 ✓
Little Rock @ Murray State +26.0 161.6 99% 68–89 ✓
UT Arlington @ Evansville -1.9 128.3 43% 84–76 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Texas State +0.7 137.6 52% 49–63 ✓
Chicago State @ Minnesota +20.5 148.0 97% 54–66 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Northern Iowa +17.3 143.8 94% 57–70 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ SMU +23.4 167.6 98% 60–106 ✓
Rhode Island @ Yale +25.6 156.4 99% 86–77 ✗
Army @ Cornell +27.3 163.9 99% 73–86 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Iowa +20.9 154.9 97% 70–99 ✓
Kansas @ Duke +10.3 150.2 83% 66–78 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Fresno State -5.2 143.0 32% 78–80 ✗
Grambling @ San Diego +6.7 148.4 73% 68–78 ✓
Wichita State @ Boise State +3.1 152.8 61% 59–62 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Utah +14.1 165.4 90% 77–85 ✓
Monmouth @ Syracuse +27.1 127.6 99% 73–78 ✓
Rider @ Texas +26.5 127.4 99% 65–99 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Pepperdine -4.3 153.5 35% 79–90 ✗
Southern @ Washington +25.4 162.4 99% 93–99 ✓
Northwestern State @ San Francisco +23.0 153.3 98% 64–84 ✓
UC Davis @ Nevada +11.6 152.5 85% 75–71 ✗
Troy @ San Diego State +15.2 137.6 92% 108–107 ✗
Idaho State @ Santa Clara +14.3 155.2 90% 55–64 ✓
UC Riverside @ California Baptist +14.9 148.5 91% 57–80 ✓
Louisiana @ Stanford +23.6 141.1 98% 66–93 ✓
Presbyterian @ California +19.9 141.4 96% 57–67 ✓
Sacramento State @ UCLA +15.1 144.6 92% 48–79 ✓
Alabama State @ Air Force +0.3 141.0 51% 64–66 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Michigan +18.8 163.1 96% 61–86 ✓
Harvard @ Penn State +19.1 141.9 96% 80–84 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.