Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | JMU +135 TOW -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +6 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | JMU -0.7 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.6 (+25.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -1.8 (+4.2) | 130.4 (+25.6) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -0.4 (+5.6) | 133.8 (+22.2) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -0.9 (+5.1) | 131.1 (+24.9) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -0.4 (+5.6) | 128.5 (+27.5) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 17, 2024 | TOW 67 – 63 JMU |
| Feb 26, 2022 | TOW 95 – 59 JMU |
| Feb 24, 2022 | TOW 84 – 65 JMU |
| Jan 27, 2021 | JMU 78 – 63 TOW |
| Jan 16, 2021 | JMU 81 – 72 TOW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JMU | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-10 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 66.4 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#239) | 2.6 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.91 (#255) | 0.68 (#137) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.31 (#252) | 0.92 (#140) |
| RPI | 0.384 (#302) | 0.494 (#187) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JMU | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 37.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 19.0% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 41.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 40.6% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 38.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 41.4% | 14.7% |
Game Analysis
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