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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
7–2 on winners
spread MAE 8.5
9 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Citadel
@
Davidson
|
+26.5 | 147.4 | 99% | 63–79 | ✓ |
Utah State
@
South Florida
|
+1.7 | 170.2 | 56% | 61–74 | ✓ |
Rider
@
Merrimack
|
+17.1 | 139.0 | 94% | 66–68 | ✓ |
Robert Morris
@
Green Bay
|
+2.7 | 146.3 | 60% | 80–78 | ✗ |
Long Beach State
@
UC Santa Barbara
|
+11.9 | 154.6 | 86% | 77–84 | ✓ |
Cal State Bakersfield
@
Cal State Northridge
|
+3.3 | 156.9 | 62% | 66–87 | ✓ |
Cal Poly
@
Cal State Fullerton
|
+4.9 | 177.0 | 67% | 94–91 | ✗ |
UC Riverside
@
UC Irvine
|
+12.0 | 141.0 | 86% | 60–73 | ✓ |
UC Davis
@
Hawai'i
|
+9.2 | 142.0 | 80% | 69–75 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.