In North Carolina way back in the hills, there lived my pappy and he had him a still. "White Lightning" - The Big Bopper
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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10–4 on winners spread MAE 9.5 14 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Saint Mary's @ Loyola Marymount -6.2 133.7 29% 78–73 ✓
Gonzaga @ Pepperdine -26.3 145.5 1% 96–56 ✓
San Francisco @ Seattle U +5.3 140.6 69% 67–59 ✗
Omaha @ Oregon +14.5 155.0 91% 57–80 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Penn State +19.4 149.8 96% 67–90 ✓
Merrimack @ Sacred Heart +4.3 141.4 65% 80–72 ✗
Missouri State @ Delaware +3.8 133.0 64% 61–43 ✗
Southern @ Illinois +34.7 168.6 100% 55–90 ✓
Marist @ Quinnipiac +3.9 139.4 64% 58–64 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Iowa +32.0 148.8 100% 62–90 ✓
Towson @ William & Mary +8.5 144.2 78% 70–84 ✓
Dartmouth @ Florida +27.8 154.0 99% 72–94 ✓
UMBC @ Coppin State -11.4 147.9 15% 93–59 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Youngstown State +13.3 147.9 89% 73–68 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.