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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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96–36 on winners spread MAE 8.5 132 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
USC @ Michigan	+27.2	176.3	99%	66–96	✓
Robert Morris @ Detroit Mercy	-0.8	153.6	47%	85–77	✓
Siena @ Iona	+3.6	147.1	63%	72–75	✓
Marist @ Saint Peter's	-5.2	129.0	32%	59–69	✗
Quinnipiac @ Manhattan	-8.2	161.2	23%	79–80	✗
Wagner @ Chicago State	-2.4	158.5	41%	79–72	✓
New Haven @ Stonehill	+4.0	125.5	64%	70–55	✗
Central Connecticut @ Long Island University	+7.5	153.2	75%	78–84	✓
Le Moyne @ Saint Francis	-6.8	157.6	27%	84–58	✓
Lamar @ McNeese	+17.7	141.4	95%	70–82	✓
Kennesaw State @ Liberty	+9.3	163.6	80%	73–81	✓
Jacksonville State @ Delaware	-0.3	127.8	49%	67–64	✓
Oregon @ Maryland	-2.3	151.0	42%	64–54	✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Mercyhurst	+9.4	133.0	80%	74–67	✗
Louisiana Tech @ Middle Tennessee	+8.7	124.5	79%	51–88	✓
Louisville @ Stanford	-11.5	160.2	15%	76–80	✗
Ohio State @ Rutgers	-12.0	151.7	14%	80–73	✓
UTEP @ Missouri State	+2.7	129.2	60%	55–79	✓
West Virginia @ Iowa State	+17.6	143.2	94%	59–80	✓
Seattle U @ Gonzaga	+26.1	148.7	99%	72–80	✓
Michigan State @ Nebraska	+2.0	140.9	57%	56–58	✓
Loyola Marymount @ Washington State	+0.5	138.3	52%	76–78	✓
San Diego @ San Francisco	+10.0	146.3	82%	64–74	✓
Portland @ Saint Mary's	+23.7	147.0	98%	57–78	✓
Pepperdine @ Santa Clara	+21.1	145.9	97%	63–82	✓
Oregon State @ Pacific	+8.0	139.5	77%	53–84	✓
Notre Dame @ California	+3.9	138.9	64%	71–72	✓
Virginia @ NC State	+4.7	164.6	67%	76–61	✗
Kentucky @ Alabama	+4.7	172.9	66%	74–89	✓
VCU @ Duquesne	-5.5	172.3	31%	93–80	✓
UTSA @ Temple	+15.4	150.0	92%	57–76	✓
Villanova @ Butler	+1.8	152.2	57%	85–67	✗
Providence @ St. John's	+15.8	178.0	92%	77–71	✗
Virginia Tech @ Wake Forest	+4.5	157.5	66%	78–81	✓
Clemson @ Pittsburgh	-3.8	136.0	36%	73–68	✓
Northeastern @ Campbell	+0.7	159.6	52%	82–97	✓
Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech	+12.0	166.4	86%	80–102	✓
Auburn @ Georgia	+9.6	180.0	81%	100–104	✓
Colgate @ Army	-6.1	154.7	29%	76–69	✓
American University @ Boston University	+2.3	157.1	58%	64–62	✗
Northern Illinois @ Kent State	+16.3	166.0	93%	73–77	✓
Vermont @ New Hampshire	-5.0	144.4	32%	80–61	✓
Chattanooga @ VMI	-3.6	147.8	37%	71–79	✗
Wofford @ The Citadel	-8.9	140.7	21%	95–86	✓
Southern Miss @ Louisiana	-6.9	129.6	27%	74–67	✓
Georgia State @ Coastal Carolina	+10.7	141.3	83%	89–71	✗
BYU @ Kansas State	-7.3	170.7	25%	83–73	✓
Houston @ Cincinnati	-6.8	130.3	27%	67–60	✓
Vanderbilt @ South Carolina	-11.4	161.5	15%	83–71	✓
Kansas @ UCF	-3.4	152.7	38%	75–81	✗
La Salle @ George Washington	+19.6	152.4	96%	55–77	✓
Dayton @ Loyola Chicago	-12.6	148.2	13%	70–68	✓
Baylor @ TCU	+1.3	162.7	55%	63–69	✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Presbyterian	+0.4	132.8	52%	77–86	✓
UNC Asheville @ Charleston Southern	+7.3	147.8	75%	83–86	✓
Longwood @ High Point	+22.4	168.8	98%	67–80	✓
Xavier @ DePaul	+4.4	146.7	65%	77–86	✓
Navy @ Holy Cross	-3.4	137.8	38%	65–58	✓
South Dakota State @ North Dakota	-7.1	148.0	26%	87–90	✗
Ohio @ Eastern Michigan	+4.3	145.8	65%	68–67	✗
Bowling Green @ Massachusetts	-3.9	144.4	36%	101–100	✓
Ball State @ Buffalo	+15.3	139.0	92%	72–85	✓
NJIT @ Binghamton	+0.2	145.3	51%	73–65	✗
Bryant @ Maine	+0.3	121.0	51%	56–51	✗
UAlbany @ UMass Lowell	+4.0	158.1	64%	71–83	✓
Hofstra @ Drexel	-9.5	140.2	19%	70–67	✓
Stetson @ Central Arkansas	+16.5	144.9	93%	73–93	✓
Eastern Kentucky @ West Georgia	+1.6	155.3	56%	76–88	✓
Boston College @ Georgia Tech	+6.5	139.0	72%	53–65	✓
North Carolina @ SMU	+1.5	154.1	55%	83–97	✓
Memphis @ Rice	-10.3	142.3	18%	76–70	✓
Toledo @ Central Michigan	-9.4	154.4	20%	78–75	✓
James Madison @ Arkansas State	+11.4	168.4	85%	78–74	✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ North Alabama	-3.2	159.6	39%	72–55	✓
Bellarmine @ Queens University	+2.9	173.8	60%	76–98	✓
Tennessee @ Arkansas	+0.8	159.6	53%	75–86	✓
Florida A&M @ Bethune-Cookman	+7.8	149.6	76%	83–87	✓
Akron @ Miami (OH)	-1.5	189.2	44%	73–76	✗
Georgia Southern @ Old Dominion	+2.1	162.5	57%	93–86	✗
Ole Miss @ Oklahoma	+5.9	147.8	70%	70–86	✓
Duke @ Florida State	-16.7	160.2	6%	91–87	✓
Texas State @ UL Monroe	-0.6	154.2	48%	84–79	✓
Arizona @ Utah	-18.6	163.1	5%	97–78	✓
Rhode Island @ George Mason	+6.7	136.6	73%	50–61	✓
San José State @ Utah State	+23.9	147.6	99%	78–96	✓
Gardner-Webb @ Winthrop	+25.7	167.0	99%	77–88	✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal State Northridge	+0.3	165.7	51%	65–74	✓
Oral Roberts @ North Dakota State	+14.5	146.7	91%	77–79	✓
North Carolina A&T @ Stony Brook	+6.3	143.1	72%	80–81	✓
Samford @ UNC Greensboro	+0.2	150.0	51%	82–89	✓
Western Carolina @ Furman	+12.8	151.7	88%	80–77	✗
Mercer @ East Tennessee State	+6.3	152.2	72%	71–77	✓
App State @ Marshall	+9.4	139.9	80%	81–88	✓
LSU @ Texas A&M	+0.2	175.4	51%	72–75	✓
Utah Valley @ Abilene Christian	-11.5	140.6	15%	68–85	✗
Howard @ South Carolina State	-10.0	145.1	18%	57–58	✗
Norfolk State @ North Carolina Central	-4.3	136.8	35%	67–69	✗
Alcorn State @ Jackson State	+2.1	155.9	57%	86–89	✓
Morgan State @ Maryland Eastern Shore	+9.8	139.2	81%	49–66	✓
Coppin State @ Delaware State	+12.2	138.2	87%	53–51	✗
Stephen F. Austin @ SE Louisiana	-9.1	134.9	21%	73–63	✓
LSU New Orleans @ Northwestern State	-4.4	159.8	34%	68–74	✗
East Texas A&M @ Nicholls	+10.3	151.4	83%	58–80	✓
South Alabama @ Troy	+9.5	160.4	81%	49–59	✓
Morehead State @ SIU Edwardsville	+6.7	136.2	73%	73–72	✗
Tennessee State @ Little Rock	-5.6	144.5	31%	84–79	✓
Southern Indiana @ Lindenwood	+15.7	146.0	92%	80–83	✓
Eastern Illinois @ UT Martin	+12.6	131.6	87%	61–65	✓
Western Illinois @ Southeast Missouri State	+15.1	152.3	92%	50–73	✓
Lehigh @ Bucknell	+3.2	140.6	61%	65–72	✓
Minnesota @ Northwestern	+8.7	135.2	78%	84–78	✗
Air Force @ UNLV	+13.9	147.2	90%	39–67	✓
Houston Christian @ Incarnate Word	+8.6	146.4	78%	56–73	✓
Lafayette @ Loyola Maryland	+1.8	154.8	56%	79–64	✗
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Davis	+15.2	156.8	92%	81–79	✗
Eastern Washington @ Idaho	+10.3	163.0	83%	81–84	✓
North Florida @ Lipscomb	+19.4	169.9	96%	74–82	✓
Jacksonville @ Austin Peay	+16.5	138.4	93%	68–71	✓
California Baptist @ Tarleton State	+3.0	147.8	61%	76–81	✓
Colorado @ Arizona State	+4.3	164.3	65%	95–89	✗
Prairie View A&M @ Grambling	+7.4	157.9	75%	72–76	✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ UT Rio Grande Valley	+4.4	136.4	65%	63–59	✗
UCLA @ Iowa	+9.4	140.7	80%	61–74	✓
Davidson @ Saint Joseph's	-4.2	144.5	35%	62–56	✓
Texas Southern @ Southern	+11.3	168.5	85%	73–84	✓
Monmouth @ Towson	+8.5	130.7	78%	62–48	✗
Northern Colorado @ Montana	-1.0	165.5	46%	79–88	✗
Portland State @ Idaho State	+7.5	142.9	75%	93–87	✗
Mississippi State @ Texas	+9.9	159.2	82%	101–98	✗
Wichita State @ Charlotte	-6.2	138.9	29%	100–104	✗
Alabama State @ Mississippi Valley State	-9.7	155.6	19%	89–69	✓
Alabama A&M @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff	+1.4	151.6	55%	83–95	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.