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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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12–7 on winners spread MAE 8.1 19 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Bradley @ Belmont	+10.6	156.0	83%	78–88	✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Queens University	+5.0	168.1	68%	89–91	✓
Bellarmine @ West Georgia	-0.3	157.1	49%	85–87	✗
Indiana State @ Northern Iowa	+14.3	130.4	90%	66–75	✓
Hawai'i @ UC Riverside	-6.9	143.5	27%	88–45	✓
North Florida @ Austin Peay	+18.1	156.6	95%	83–102	✓
Utah Valley @ Tarleton State	-5.2	152.0	32%	91–85	✓
Utah Tech @ Abilene Christian	+3.6	139.5	63%	79–64	✗
Eastern Illinois @ Southeast Missouri State	+11.4	151.4	85%	59–68	✓
Murray State @ UIC	-7.3	163.4	25%	81–77	✓
Northern Colorado @ Montana State	+3.5	154.3	62%	75–89	✓
Sacramento State @ Idaho State	+13.2	146.7	88%	84–97	✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal State Fullerton	+0.4	169.0	52%	84–95	✓
UC San Diego @ Cal Poly	-9.6	170.5	19%	65–67	✗
New Mexico State @ Florida International	-0.9	156.9	47%	74–89	✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Merrimack	+7.0	138.1	74%	65–75	✓
Sacred Heart @ Niagara	-4.8	141.3	33%	61–64	✗
Fairfield @ Canisius	-5.1	136.3	32%	81–85	✗
Sam Houston @ Western Kentucky	-0.7	167.6	47%	91–102	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.