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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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32–18 on winners spread MAE 9.9 50 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
UIC @ Southern Illinois +4.4 145.1 65% 68–66 ✗
Rutgers @ USC +14.0 153.8 90% 75–78 ✓
Bowling Green @ Central Michigan -10.8 147.6 16% 59–62 ✗
Harvard @ Yale +12.2 145.6 87% 67–65 ✗
New Haven @ Saint Francis +0.0 134.3 50% 81–69 ✗
UMBC @ UAlbany -1.1 142.1 46% 68–65 ✓
McNeese @ Lamar -8.2 143.0 23% 64–63 ✓
UConn @ Creighton -7.7 142.5 24% 85–58 ✓
Murray State @ Belmont +5.7 170.5 70% 86–103 ✓
UAB @ North Texas +0.5 137.3 52% 72–68 ✗
Washington @ Northwestern +1.0 148.5 54% 76–62 ✗
Cal Poly @ UC Riverside +1.3 162.4 55% 94–87 ✗
UC San Diego @ Cal State Northridge -3.7 158.6 37% 64–81 ✗
Georgia State @ South Alabama +6.7 138.0 73% 67–69 ✓
Idaho @ Northern Arizona -4.9 144.7 33% 79–62 ✓
South Florida @ Temple -6.6 165.2 27% 78–79 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Southern Indiana -1.9 129.8 43% 58–46 ✓
Auburn @ Tennessee +5.8 156.2 70% 69–77 ✓
Santa Clara @ Loyola Marymount -10.1 149.4 18% 104–73 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ UC Santa Barbara +7.4 161.3 75% 69–83 ✓
Delaware @ UTEP +2.9 130.6 60% 55–70 ✓
Colorado State @ Wyoming +2.0 144.2 57% 57–68 ✓
New Mexico @ San José State -16.0 146.6 7% 90–80 ✓
Pacific @ San Francisco +3.6 138.8 63% 82–87 ✓
Montana @ Sacramento State -5.4 159.4 31% 79–86 ✗
Louisiana Tech @ Sam Houston +12.9 139.0 88% 67–83 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Gonzaga +11.8 148.4 86% 65–73 ✓
Rhode Island @ Duquesne +0.7 151.7 52% 61–76 ✓
Purdue @ Maryland -17.2 149.8 6% 93–63 ✓
Alabama @ Florida +6.0 171.0 71% 77–100 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Merrimack +6.6 145.4 72% 58–75 ✓
Siena @ Canisius -9.6 129.5 19% 78–63 ✓
Samford @ Western Carolina +3.3 160.3 62% 88–74 ✗
Chattanooga @ Furman +10.8 143.3 84% 70–75 ✓
Iowa State @ Kansas State -13.4 160.9 11% 95–61 ✓
Kansas City @ St. Thomas +19.2 149.4 96% 64–99 ✓
Wichita State @ Tulsa +7.6 158.2 75% 83–93 ✓
East Carolina @ Florida Atlantic +17.1 152.7 94% 76–75 ✗
TCU @ Colorado -2.7 158.1 40% 61–87 ✗
Minnesota @ Penn State -1.6 143.5 44% 75–77 ✗
Saint Peter's @ Rider -8.1 133.6 23% 78–81 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Fairfield -0.9 155.7 47% 72–65 ✓
Wright State @ Green Bay -3.9 145.9 36% 83–75 ✓
Marist @ Niagara -11.1 125.7 16% 58–46 ✓
Manhattan @ Mount St. Mary's +6.1 154.5 71% 65–72 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ UL Monroe -9.4 153.0 20% 83–79 ✓
Tulane @ Memphis +11.3 144.8 85% 78–76 ✗
Cleveland State @ Milwaukee +8.9 163.4 79% 90–88 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ Oakland +7.2 171.3 74% 65–76 ✓
Illinois @ Nebraska +0.7 148.1 53% 78–69 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.