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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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85–44 on winners spread MAE 9.1 129 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Rice @ Charlotte +7.9 146.6 76% 70–80 ✓
Fairfield @ Iona +5.6 155.0 69% 71–70 ✗
Providence @ Villanova +10.1 168.2 82% 73–87 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Quinnipiac +10.8 158.5 84% 98–91 ✗
Dartmouth @ Yale +16.5 160.1 93% 68–83 ✓
Cleveland State @ Green Bay +10.0 157.1 82% 89–82 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ Detroit Mercy -4.2 162.5 35% 77–90 ✗
Marist @ Canisius -11.6 120.6 15% 88–86 ✓
Rider @ Manhattan +6.4 147.2 72% 90–95 ✓
Harvard @ Brown -2.3 131.6 42% 69–59 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Columbia +6.1 155.3 71% 67–72 ✓
Michigan @ Michigan State -2.6 148.5 41% 83–71 ✓
Dayton @ Saint Louis +15.0 155.9 91% 71–102 ✓
Wright State @ Milwaukee -3.5 151.4 38% 76–69 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Saint Peter's +8.3 139.5 77% 58–66 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ VCU +24.5 155.4 99% 75–89 ✓
Boise State @ Grand Canyon +0.0 140.4 50% 69–86 ✓
UNLV @ Nevada +11.3 156.5 85% 76–89 ✓
Duke @ Virginia Tech -13.8 152.4 10% 72–58 ✓
Cincinnati @ Houston +15.1 129.5 92% 54–76 ✓
Texas Tech @ UCF -4.0 160.9 36% 80–88 ✗
Pittsburgh @ Clemson +12.6 136.9 87% 52–63 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Winthrop +8.6 148.3 78% 71–84 ✓
Marquette @ Seton Hall +10.9 140.0 84% 64–69 ✓
Georgetown @ Butler +8.9 157.5 79% 77–64 ✗
NC State @ Wake Forest -5.4 160.9 31% 96–78 ✓
Ball State @ Toledo +12.7 144.3 88% 55–73 ✓
Campbell @ William & Mary +11.8 167.2 86% 104–96 ✗
Stony Brook @ Elon +6.5 154.8 72% 72–68 ✗
UNC Greensboro @ The Citadel -1.5 152.8 44% 66–71 ✗
Valparaiso @ Indiana State +0.5 145.4 52% 76–72 ✗
Holy Cross @ Army +1.6 146.9 56% 68–69 ✓
San Diego State @ Utah State +8.3 154.4 78% 66–71 ✓
DePaul @ Xavier +4.2 149.0 65% 66–68 ✓
Robert Morris @ Purdue Fort Wayne +0.9 151.2 53% 71–83 ✓
Stonehill @ Le Moyne +9.1 139.5 80% 65–54 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Wagner +5.2 145.0 68% 72–75 ✓
LSU @ South Carolina -2.5 150.5 41% 92–87 ✓
Texas A&M @ Georgia +5.9 183.7 71% 92–77 ✗
Virginia @ Boston College -14.7 142.7 9% 73–66 ✓
Arizona @ Arizona State -15.7 163.7 8% 87–74 ✓
North Carolina @ Georgia Tech -11.0 153.5 16% 91–75 ✓
SMU @ Louisville +8.6 166.6 78% 74–88 ✓
Colgate @ Lehigh -3.3 152.1 38% 76–77 ✗
Lafayette @ American University +9.3 146.7 80% 67–65 ✗
Fordham @ George Washington +15.1 145.2 92% 79–65 ✗
Ohio State @ Wisconsin +1.9 163.5 57% 82–92 ✓
Boston University @ Bucknell -1.0 145.6 46% 97–103 ✗
Radford @ Presbyterian +2.6 149.9 59% 93–84 ✗
Mercyhurst @ Chicago State -4.0 132.9 36% 74–78 ✗
Ohio @ Buffalo +7.4 159.0 75% 95–83 ✗
Long Island University @ Central Connecticut -1.5 148.0 44% 80–59 ✓
Maine @ UMass Lowell +4.6 133.2 66% 77–91 ✓
Charleston @ Northeastern -1.5 160.4 45% 89–84 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Drexel +7.0 140.9 74% 60–61 ✓
Hampton @ Towson +6.8 125.5 73% 50–82 ✓
Hofstra @ Monmouth -2.3 143.4 42% 73–57 ✓
VMI @ Mercer +23.6 157.4 98% 81–95 ✓
Old Dominion @ Texas State -1.5 144.5 45% 64–81 ✗
Texas @ Oklahoma -1.2 162.3 46% 79–69 ✓
Queens University @ Bellarmine -2.5 171.4 41% 75–78 ✗
North Alabama @ Stetson +3.8 146.9 64% 68–66 ✗
Lipscomb @ North Florida -10.7 172.6 16% 100–94 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ La Salle -0.1 138.7 50% 67–58 ✓
High Point @ Longwood -11.8 164.9 14% 71–59 ✓
Fresno State @ Air Force -12.8 130.4 12% 79–62 ✓
Oral Roberts @ South Dakota State +13.4 149.4 89% 72–95 ✓
Marshall @ Arkansas State +2.1 167.6 58% 70–61 ✗
James Madison @ Southern Miss +0.8 149.2 53% 65–73 ✓
Idaho State @ Weber State +3.4 155.1 62% 79–81 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Jacksonville -0.2 147.6 49% 68–49 ✓
California Baptist @ UT Arlington +2.4 127.8 59% 87–77 ✗
Jacksonville State @ Missouri State +3.7 134.9 63% 67–74 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Miami (OH) +19.9 160.9 96% 61–85 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Alabama State -1.0 157.9 46% 69–54 ✓
Mississippi State @ Missouri +5.2 152.6 68% 79–84 ✓
Lindenwood @ Morehead State -1.6 154.5 44% 79–78 ✓
Evansville @ Northern Iowa +14.2 122.9 90% 55–71 ✓
Norfolk State @ Howard +5.9 140.4 71% 60–88 ✓
Baylor @ West Virginia +2.4 145.0 59% 63–53 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Mississippi Valley State -12.0 152.4 14% 78–70 ✓
Grambling @ Jackson State -6.1 149.9 29% 69–66 ✓
California @ Miami +7.5 147.7 75% 86–85 ✗
Loyola Maryland @ Navy +13.8 143.1 90% 71–87 ✓
Omaha @ Denver +3.5 163.3 62% 84–82 ✗
New Hampshire @ Bryant -1.5 130.5 44% 84–92 ✗
Hawai'i @ Long Beach State -8.8 144.7 21% 89–82 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Louisiana -3.1 145.0 39% 60–69 ✗
Eastern Washington @ Northern Colorado +7.3 168.4 75% 71–74 ✓
Southern Utah @ Abilene Christian +6.3 147.5 72% 79–76 ✗
Western Kentucky @ Middle Tennessee +4.7 146.3 67% 65–60 ✗
Little Rock @ Tennessee Tech +1.1 143.7 54% 77–87 ✓
BYU @ Kansas +3.4 154.9 62% 82–90 ✓
Davidson @ Richmond +3.9 143.6 64% 79–54 ✗
Morgan State @ Coppin State -2.9 158.2 40% 89–80 ✓
Houston Christian @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +10.1 133.1 82% 71–73 ✓
NJIT @ Vermont +12.6 144.6 87% 79–77 ✗
App State @ Troy +8.6 145.0 78% 66–44 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Central Arkansas +8.5 156.4 78% 81–90 ✓
Austin Peay @ West Georgia -8.4 148.3 22% 81–78 ✓
UT Martin @ Western Illinois -10.7 132.3 16% 84–44 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Eastern Illinois -2.0 140.4 43% 77–59 ✓
Southern @ Alcorn State -5.6 157.0 30% 73–78 ✗
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Delaware State -3.5 122.3 38% 57–65 ✗
Indiana @ UCLA +0.3 145.1 51% 98–97 ✗
UC Davis @ Cal State Bakersfield -6.4 157.6 28% 80–72 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Incarnate Word -1.6 140.5 44% 106–93 ✓
Montana State @ Portland State +2.3 140.3 58% 54–63 ✓
Utah Tech @ Tarleton State +4.1 160.1 65% 65–59 ✗
New Mexico State @ Kennesaw State +1.8 163.3 56% 53–76 ✓
Texas Southern @ Prairie View A&M +3.2 163.0 61% 78–85 ✓
Florida A&M @ Alabama A&M +4.0 136.5 64% 65–72 ✓
Ole Miss @ Vanderbilt +16.1 153.0 93% 68–71 ✓
Bradley @ Drake +2.6 153.5 59% 87–73 ✗
Portland @ Washington State +8.4 154.0 78% 74–104 ✓
Oregon State @ San Diego +3.7 153.2 63% 78–76 ✗
Notre Dame @ Syracuse +3.8 144.8 63% 72–86 ✓
Dartmouth @ Brown +0.1 143.4 51% 77–70 ✗
Princeton @ Columbia +9.1 142.8 80% 80–68 ✗
North Dakota State @ South Dakota -8.6 162.3 22% 89–84 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Massachusetts +6.1 148.4 71% 67–70 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Cornell +5.9 181.0 70% 91–81 ✗
SE Louisiana @ Stephen F. Austin +14.9 133.6 91% 58–85 ✓
Northwestern State @ LSU New Orleans +7.6 159.8 76% 64–75 ✓
Nicholls @ East Texas A&M -0.0 149.2 50% 72–68 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Utah -1.4 172.5 45% 81–69 ✓
Stanford @ Florida State +1.0 156.9 54% 80–88 ✓
George Mason @ St. Bonaventure -3.4 145.7 38% 77–73 ✓
Kentucky @ Arkansas +5.4 164.2 69% 85–77 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.