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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
12–8 on winners
spread MAE 10.0
20 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kent State
@
Illinois State
|
+8.9 | 154.5 | 79% | 58–79 | ✓ |
George Washington
@
Utah Valley
|
+1.6 | 158.9 | 56% | 79–78 | ✗ |
Dayton
@
Bradley
|
-1.2 | 148.1 | 46% | 80–66 | ✓ |
Sam Houston
@
New Mexico
|
+10.8 | 159.3 | 84% | 83–107 | ✓ |
Miami (OH)
@
SMU
|
+7.6 | 170.5 | 76% | 89–79 | ✗ |
Murray State
@
Nevada
|
+7.9 | 162.9 | 76% | 75–89 | ✓ |
Saint Joseph's
@
Colorado State
|
+6.8 | 141.7 | 73% | 69–64 | ✗ |
UIC
@
California
|
+7.1 | 145.2 | 74% | 73–91 | ✓ |
TCU
@
Ohio State
|
+3.2 | 151.2 | 61% | 66–64 | ✗ |
Troy
@
Nebraska
|
+16.7 | 144.6 | 94% | 47–76 | ✓ |
South Florida
@
Louisville
|
+8.1 | 167.5 | 77% | 79–83 | ✓ |
High Point
@
Wisconsin
|
+8.9 | 168.9 | 79% | 83–82 | ✗ |
Siena
@
Duke
|
+27.5 | 136.4 | 99% | 65–71 | ✓ |
McNeese
@
Vanderbilt
|
+9.9 | 155.4 | 82% | 68–78 | ✓ |
North Dakota State
@
Michigan State
|
+15.8 | 144.3 | 92% | 67–92 | ✓ |
Hawai'i
@
Arkansas
|
+15.3 | 163.5 | 92% | 78–97 | ✓ |
VCU
@
North Carolina
|
+4.2 | 156.0 | 65% | 82–78 | ✗ |
Howard
@
Michigan
|
+31.3 | 153.8 | 100% | 80–101 | ✓ |
Texas A&M
@
Saint Mary's
|
+3.6 | 156.4 | 63% | 63–50 | ✗ |
Texas
@
BYU
|
+4.2 | 166.0 | 65% | 79–71 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.