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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
9–1 on winners
spread MAE 12.8
10 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Prairie View A&M
@
Florida
|
+34.2 | 156.0 | 100% | 55–114 | ✓ |
California Baptist
@
Kansas
|
+13.9 | 137.1 | 90% | 60–68 | ✓ |
Missouri
@
Miami
|
+4.3 | 152.8 | 65% | 66–80 | ✓ |
Furman
@
UConn
|
+20.0 | 137.8 | 97% | 71–82 | ✓ |
Saint Louis
@
Michigan
|
+12.6 | 166.1 | 87% | 72–95 | ✓ |
Louisville
@
Michigan State
|
+1.2 | 151.8 | 54% | 69–77 | ✓ |
TCU
@
Duke
|
+14.6 | 141.7 | 91% | 58–81 | ✓ |
Texas A&M
@
Houston
|
+10.2 | 149.4 | 82% | 57–88 | ✓ |
Dayton
@
UNC Wilmington
|
-0.9 | 137.4 | 47% | 80–61 | ✓ |
Texas
@
Gonzaga
|
+8.3 | 154.5 | 77% | 74–68 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.