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Baseline Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
12–5 on winners
spread MAE 9.2
17 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
@
Alabama State
|
+16.1 | 162.7 | 90% | 91–93 | ✓ |
South Florida
@
Wichita State
|
+8.3 | 155.6 | 79% | 91–72 | ✗ |
Wisconsin
@
Rutgers
|
-3.6 | 156.9 | 32% | 75–63 | ✓ |
UT Rio Grande Valley
@
SE Louisiana
|
-0.2 | 142.5 | 49% | 75–79 | ✗ |
Nicholls
@
East Texas A&M
|
-3.7 | 141.3 | 35% | 83–61 | ✓ |
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
@
LSU New Orleans
|
-8.5 | 149.6 | 18% | 97–83 | ✓ |
McNeese
@
Northwestern State
|
-6.6 | 132.6 | 21% | 92–69 | ✓ |
Houston Christian
@
Stephen F. Austin
|
+4.7 | 126.3 | 54% | 83–73 | ✗ |
South Carolina State
@
Coppin State
|
-9.1 | 134.8 | 17% | 85–77 | ✓ |
Mississippi Valley State
@
Alabama A&M
|
+12.5 | 136.7 | 86% | 67–79 | ✓ |
Incarnate Word
@
Lamar
|
+3.7 | 135.2 | 71% | 58–72 | ✓ |
Southern
@
Prairie View A&M
|
-1.3 | 148.1 | 45% | 84–80 | ✓ |
TCU
@
Houston
|
+15.1 | 128.1 | 88% | 46–65 | ✓ |
Grambling
@
Texas Southern
|
+1.4 | 137.3 | 54% | 66–71 | ✓ |
Ohio State
@
Minnesota
|
-8.5 | 141.2 | 21% | 89–88 | ✓ |
North Carolina Central
@
Morgan State
|
-2.7 | 152.7 | 43% | 98–102 | ✗ |
St. John's
@
Xavier
|
+0.7 | 150.6 | 55% | 82–72 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.