In North Carolina way back in the hills, there lived my pappy and he had him a still. "White Lightning" - The Big Bopper
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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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98–34 on winners spread MAE 8.0 132 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
USC @ Michigan +21.5 166.4 90% 66–96 ✓
Robert Morris @ Detroit Mercy -0.0 147.0 58% 85–77 ✓
Siena @ Iona +1.4 141.3 59% 72–75 ✓
Marist @ Saint Peter's -3.6 132.2 38% 59–69 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Manhattan -7.9 150.5 23% 79–80 ✗
Wagner @ Chicago State -0.8 147.7 48% 79–72 ✓
New Haven @ Stonehill -0.1 122.4 44% 70–55 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Long Island University +4.8 149.6 71% 78–84 ✓
Le Moyne @ Saint Francis -6.6 147.1 24% 84–58 ✓
Lamar @ McNeese +15.8 142.5 87% 70–82 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Liberty +6.9 154.1 75% 73–81 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Delaware -0.7 130.6 42% 67–64 ✓
Oregon @ Maryland -3.3 148.3 37% 64–54 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Mercyhurst +7.9 129.9 78% 74–67 ✗
Louisiana Tech @ Middle Tennessee +6.8 129.5 73% 51–88 ✓
Louisville @ Stanford -6.9 153.6 24% 76–80 ✗
Ohio State @ Rutgers -9.1 146.7 20% 80–73 ✓
UTEP @ Missouri State +2.3 131.2 58% 55–79 ✓
West Virginia @ Iowa State +16.7 141.5 88% 59–80 ✓
Seattle U @ Gonzaga +22.5 148.7 90% 72–80 ✓
Michigan State @ Nebraska +2.9 142.4 58% 56–58 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Washington State +0.6 136.0 46% 76–78 ✓
San Diego @ San Francisco +10.5 143.9 82% 64–74 ✓
Portland @ Saint Mary's +18.9 140.9 91% 57–78 ✓
Pepperdine @ Santa Clara +17.6 143.2 89% 63–82 ✓
Oregon State @ Pacific +5.5 137.6 74% 53–84 ✓
Notre Dame @ California +3.8 135.5 70% 71–72 ✓
Virginia @ NC State +6.1 153.5 74% 76–61 ✗
Kentucky @ Alabama +6.5 165.3 70% 74–89 ✓
VCU @ Duquesne -4.4 159.0 28% 93–80 ✓
UTSA @ Temple +14.6 147.4 88% 57–76 ✓
Villanova @ Butler +2.2 143.3 63% 85–67 ✗
Providence @ St. John's +13.5 167.0 87% 77–71 ✗
Virginia Tech @ Wake Forest +3.1 152.5 61% 78–81 ✓
Clemson @ Pittsburgh -1.7 134.6 39% 73–68 ✓
Northeastern @ Campbell +1.1 151.0 66% 82–97 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech +10.7 162.9 81% 80–102 ✓
Auburn @ Georgia +9.8 168.8 80% 100–104 ✓
Colgate @ Army -4.3 150.1 37% 76–69 ✓
American University @ Boston University -0.0 147.9 53% 64–62 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Kent State +12.7 152.8 85% 73–77 ✓
Vermont @ New Hampshire -5.3 142.0 32% 80–61 ✓
Chattanooga @ VMI -2.7 144.5 48% 71–79 ✗
Wofford @ The Citadel -9.1 135.4 24% 95–86 ✓
Southern Miss @ Louisiana -7.4 131.7 21% 74–67 ✓
Georgia State @ Coastal Carolina +8.7 143.3 79% 89–71 ✗
BYU @ Kansas State -4.4 159.7 26% 83–73 ✓
Houston @ Cincinnati -3.9 134.0 24% 67–60 ✓
Vanderbilt @ South Carolina -8.5 154.3 19% 83–71 ✓
Kansas @ UCF -1.1 145.3 55% 75–81 ✗
La Salle @ George Washington +16.8 146.5 89% 55–77 ✓
Dayton @ Loyola Chicago -10.8 142.8 15% 70–68 ✓
Baylor @ TCU +3.8 155.2 57% 63–69 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Presbyterian +0.0 135.1 47% 77–86 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Charleston Southern +6.5 144.9 79% 83–86 ✓
Longwood @ High Point +16.6 159.3 89% 67–80 ✓
Xavier @ DePaul +3.0 141.6 63% 77–86 ✓
Navy @ Holy Cross -2.8 134.5 35% 65–58 ✓
South Dakota State @ North Dakota -5.5 146.6 35% 87–90 ✗
Ohio @ Eastern Michigan +2.1 144.5 58% 68–67 ✗
Bowling Green @ Massachusetts -2.8 146.0 42% 101–100 ✓
Ball State @ Buffalo +11.7 138.3 83% 72–85 ✓
NJIT @ Binghamton +0.1 141.2 56% 73–65 ✗
Bryant @ Maine -1.8 127.9 41% 56–51 ✓
UAlbany @ UMass Lowell +2.2 148.1 63% 71–83 ✓
Hofstra @ Drexel -8.8 134.8 19% 70–67 ✓
Stetson @ Central Arkansas +11.8 141.1 85% 73–93 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ West Georgia +0.9 150.3 65% 76–88 ✓
Boston College @ Georgia Tech +5.3 138.5 71% 53–65 ✓
North Carolina @ SMU +2.4 149.9 59% 83–97 ✓
Memphis @ Rice -9.0 140.7 20% 76–70 ✓
Toledo @ Central Michigan -7.8 148.3 22% 78–75 ✓
James Madison @ Arkansas State +8.3 156.2 83% 78–74 ✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ North Alabama -1.1 148.8 44% 72–55 ✓
Bellarmine @ Queens University +2.5 156.4 68% 76–98 ✓
Tennessee @ Arkansas +3.3 152.8 55% 75–86 ✓
Florida A&M @ Bethune-Cookman +5.2 146.7 75% 83–87 ✓
Akron @ Miami (OH) +1.6 171.1 64% 73–76 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Old Dominion +0.8 156.9 49% 93–86 ✗
Ole Miss @ Oklahoma +6.1 143.4 74% 70–86 ✓
Duke @ Florida State -10.7 154.1 17% 91–87 ✓
Texas State @ UL Monroe -3.0 145.1 42% 84–79 ✓
Arizona @ Utah -15.2 155.6 13% 97–78 ✓
Rhode Island @ George Mason +7.0 134.0 77% 50–61 ✓
San José State @ Utah State +18.8 143.5 91% 78–96 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Winthrop +20.2 157.9 91% 77–88 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal State Northridge +0.6 153.3 55% 65–74 ✓
Oral Roberts @ North Dakota State +12.0 141.6 86% 77–79 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Stony Brook +4.4 137.2 68% 80–81 ✓
Samford @ UNC Greensboro -0.4 147.5 54% 82–89 ✗
Western Carolina @ Furman +12.4 146.0 87% 80–77 ✗
Mercer @ East Tennessee State +5.7 145.6 74% 71–77 ✓
App State @ Marshall +6.7 136.6 74% 81–88 ✓
LSU @ Texas A&M +2.2 162.9 61% 72–75 ✓
Utah Valley @ Abilene Christian -8.4 136.9 20% 68–85 ✗
Howard @ South Carolina State -10.0 136.1 15% 57–58 ✗
Norfolk State @ North Carolina Central -3.8 136.3 27% 67–69 ✗
Alcorn State @ Jackson State +2.0 144.3 48% 86–89 ✓
Morgan State @ Maryland Eastern Shore +6.6 135.8 79% 49–66 ✓
Coppin State @ Delaware State +10.3 133.7 83% 53–51 ✗
Stephen F. Austin @ SE Louisiana -8.0 134.0 20% 73–63 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Northwestern State -2.9 145.5 45% 68–74 ✗
East Texas A&M @ Nicholls +9.5 144.0 82% 58–80 ✓
South Alabama @ Troy +6.2 149.6 75% 49–59 ✓
Morehead State @ SIU Edwardsville +4.9 133.6 70% 73–72 ✗
Tennessee State @ Little Rock -4.2 143.3 30% 84–79 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Lindenwood +13.5 145.1 87% 80–83 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ UT Martin +9.6 132.3 83% 61–65 ✓
Western Illinois @ Southeast Missouri State +9.8 146.8 83% 50–73 ✓
Lehigh @ Bucknell +2.8 136.7 52% 65–72 ✓
Minnesota @ Northwestern +6.3 134.2 74% 84–78 ✗
Air Force @ UNLV +9.3 142.0 84% 39–67 ✓
Houston Christian @ Incarnate Word +8.3 140.0 79% 56–73 ✓
Lafayette @ Loyola Maryland +0.1 146.9 41% 79–64 ✗
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Davis +11.7 151.4 85% 81–79 ✗
Eastern Washington @ Idaho +10.3 153.5 84% 81–84 ✓
North Florida @ Lipscomb +16.2 158.7 89% 74–82 ✓
Jacksonville @ Austin Peay +13.5 138.7 87% 68–71 ✓
California Baptist @ Tarleton State +2.6 140.7 60% 76–81 ✓
Colorado @ Arizona State +3.9 157.4 69% 95–89 ✗
Prairie View A&M @ Grambling +5.3 149.0 76% 72–76 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ UT Rio Grande Valley +2.2 135.3 57% 63–59 ✗
UCLA @ Iowa +8.6 137.5 79% 61–74 ✓
Davidson @ Saint Joseph's -3.0 141.8 48% 62–56 ✓
Texas Southern @ Southern +10.0 155.4 82% 73–84 ✓
Monmouth @ Towson +7.4 133.3 76% 62–48 ✗
Northern Colorado @ Montana -0.5 159.4 51% 79–88 ✗
Portland State @ Idaho State +5.3 141.4 68% 93–87 ✗
Mississippi State @ Texas +8.6 153.4 78% 101–98 ✗
Wichita State @ Charlotte -6.6 137.6 23% 100–104 ✗
Alabama State @ Mississippi Valley State -10.0 144.6 14% 89–69 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff -1.3 144.7 45% 83–95 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.