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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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35–13 on winners spread MAE 8.6 48 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Illinois @ Penn State -14.1 150.6 14% 73–65 ✓
Nevada @ Fresno State -4.3 142.4 30% 66–65 ✓
Hampton @ UNC Wilmington +11.3 133.8 85% 45–49 ✓
UC Irvine @ Cal State Fullerton +0.2 153.9 49% 86–64 ✗
Purdue @ Wisconsin -5.0 145.6 24% 89–73 ✓
Wyoming @ New Mexico +4.9 147.4 75% 58–78 ✓
Colorado State @ Grand Canyon +2.2 140.5 68% 70–60 ✗
Kansas City @ Omaha +8.7 141.6 75% 73–66 ✗
Northern Arizona @ Montana State +10.4 136.1 84% 68–77 ✓
Florida @ Missouri -7.4 149.3 24% 74–76 ✗
UT Arlington @ Southern Utah -11.3 134.6 16% 86–77 ✓
Cal Poly @ Long Beach State +1.4 155.1 59% 66–74 ✓
Sacramento State @ Weber State +7.9 157.2 77% 82–95 ✓
Boise State @ San Diego State +2.4 139.0 62% 107–110 ✓
Hawai'i @ UC San Diego +2.6 137.6 65% 73–83 ✓
Richmond @ Fordham -0.8 133.9 49% 83–75 ✓
Creighton @ Seton Hall +4.8 135.9 73% 54–56 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Canisius -2.2 132.8 43% 78–82 ✗
Manhattan @ Merrimack +5.6 142.2 76% 66–73 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Tulane -6.5 151.4 30% 66–69 ✗
UAB @ South Florida +6.3 156.3 72% 109–106 ✗
Denver @ St. Thomas +12.0 154.5 85% 88–92 ✓
New Haven @ Central Connecticut +5.8 133.9 73% 61–72 ✓
Marquette @ UConn +21.8 145.0 91% 57–73 ✓
Cleveland State @ Purdue Fort Wayne +9.0 151.8 84% 71–74 ✓
Wright State @ IU Indianapolis -10.7 156.0 16% 81–77 ✓
Siena @ Rider -11.0 128.9 14% 74–65 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Quinnipiac +12.0 142.6 87% 69–80 ✓
Fairfield @ Niagara -5.0 135.9 29% 83–75 ✓
Iona @ Marist +2.6 144.0 63% 38–83 ✓
Long Island University @ Chicago State -4.9 146.8 35% 74–55 ✓
Le Moyne @ Mercyhurst +0.5 137.9 57% 60–74 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Delaware -3.9 146.3 36% 52–67 ✗
Jacksonville State @ Liberty +9.3 137.4 81% 69–78 ✓
Sam Houston @ Middle Tennessee +4.1 150.8 67% 67–68 ✓
UIC @ Valparaiso +2.8 139.5 66% 59–66 ✓
Indiana State @ Drake +5.8 148.0 75% 72–74 ✓
Robert Morris @ Oakland +5.1 156.5 70% 73–96 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Western Kentucky +8.9 135.1 79% 61–66 ✓
New Mexico State @ Missouri State -0.2 134.7 49% 82–89 ✗
Northern Iowa @ Evansville -9.9 128.4 17% 62–48 ✓
Tulsa @ North Texas -8.4 134.9 19% 67–72 ✗
Youngstown State @ Northern Kentucky +1.1 142.9 62% 79–94 ✓
Stonehill @ Wagner +10.0 141.1 84% 69–60 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Saint Francis -3.1 133.6 24% 82–85 ✗
UTEP @ Florida International +9.3 144.6 81% 64–76 ✓
Bradley @ Murray State +7.7 157.8 80% 66–86 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Belmont +10.3 157.2 82% 68–67 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.