← All models
Baseline Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
5–5 on winners
spread MAE 8.4
10 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Toledo
@
Akron
|
+7.5 | 154.8 | 78% | 76–79 | ✓ |
Kennesaw State
@
Louisiana Tech
|
-0.7 | 143.2 | 46% | 71–60 | ✓ |
Virginia
@
Duke
|
+8.1 | 138.1 | 77% | 70–74 | ✓ |
Hawai'i
@
UC Irvine
|
+0.5 | 142.4 | 51% | 71–64 | ✗ |
California Baptist
@
Utah Valley
|
+1.3 | 140.7 | 54% | 63–61 | ✗ |
Pennsylvania
@
Yale
|
+6.2 | 139.2 | 74% | 88–84 | ✗ |
Vanderbilt
@
Arkansas
|
-2.3 | 171.3 | 38% | 75–86 | ✗ |
Dayton
@
VCU
|
+3.0 | 138.2 | 63% | 62–70 | ✓ |
Wichita State
@
South Florida
|
+3.2 | 153.0 | 64% | 55–70 | ✓ |
Purdue
@
Michigan
|
+6.0 | 148.8 | 72% | 80–72 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.