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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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30–11 on winners spread MAE 9.7 41 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Presbyterian @ High Point +12.9 146.8 87% 66–77 ✓
East Carolina @ Wichita State +5.3 147.9 67% 75–72 ✗
Northern Iowa @ Southern Illinois -4.1 144.4 33% 49–73 ✗
Eastern Washington @ Idaho +3.3 145.0 68% 76–83 ✓
Bellarmine @ Eastern Kentucky +12.5 153.1 86% 69–72 ✓
Austin Peay @ Lipscomb +17.2 138.0 89% 60–88 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Long Beach State +5.5 135.9 65% 83–67 ✗
California Baptist @ Abilene Christian -2.4 136.3 37% 60–54 ✓
Rider @ Marist +9.4 129.7 76% 64–57 ✗
Western Kentucky @ Middle Tennessee +6.1 149.6 77% 57–71 ✓
New Mexico State @ Liberty +6.4 134.5 69% 60–68 ✓
Duke @ Boston College -17.6 140.2 12% 88–63 ✓
UNLV @ San Diego State +11.9 131.3 84% 76–68 ✗
Montana @ Idaho State +1.1 143.3 58% 62–86 ✓
Portland State @ Northern Arizona +1.8 139.7 56% 80–69 ✗
Sacramento State @ Northern Colorado +15.2 140.0 88% 64–68 ✓
St. John's @ Seton Hall -11.7 138.3 14% 79–51 ✓
UC San Diego @ UC Riverside -7.5 140.6 23% 81–85 ✗
Southern Utah @ Seattle U +6.7 141.9 74% 52–75 ✓
Tarleton State @ Grand Canyon +14.4 135.6 87% 64–88 ✓
Denver @ St. Thomas +15.5 153.8 90% 62–74 ✓
LSU @ Texas A&M +8.6 148.1 82% 57–68 ✓
Santa Clara @ Gonzaga +12.4 161.2 85% 103–99 ✗
BYU @ Utah +1.3 145.3 62% 72–73 ✓
Montana State @ Weber State +0.2 139.2 53% 80–71 ✗
San Diego @ Loyola Marymount +10.4 138.2 84% 70–77 ✓
Cal Poly @ UC Irvine +17.1 152.4 89% 71–101 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Pepperdine -12.7 139.1 14% 74–50 ✓
Oregon State @ San Francisco +1.6 145.0 60% 70–81 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Hawai'i +3.7 144.0 69% 70–81 ✓
Illinois @ Michigan State +0.6 156.1 54% 78–80 ✓
Nebraska @ Maryland +8.7 148.0 83% 66–69 ✓
Tulane @ Temple +5.9 149.2 75% 77–80 ✓
Rice @ Florida Atlantic +6.1 147.7 74% 73–75 ✓
Youngstown State @ Green Bay -6.1 143.8 30% 73–69 ✓
Northwestern @ Michigan +11.8 149.9 86% 76–80 ✓
La Salle @ Massachusetts +0.4 157.3 51% 60–82 ✓
Cleveland State @ IU Indianapolis -3.9 141.8 34% 73–62 ✓
Memphis @ Charlotte -12.9 145.3 14% 77–68 ✓
Robert Morris @ Milwaukee +6.1 142.2 74% 81–79 ✗
TCU @ Baylor +11.3 137.9 86% 74–71 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.