And with the way you look I understand you're not impressed. "Alison" - Elvis Costello
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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24–14 on winners spread MAE 10.3 38 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Vanderbilt @ Alabama +10.6 163.9 83% 87–103 ✓
Mississippi State @ Tennessee +6.7 138.8 77% 56–68 ✓
Butler @ UConn +10.9 144.3 84% 78–80 ✓
Texas Tech @ Cincinnati -1.4 131.1 40% 81–71 ✓
Boston College @ Virginia +6.2 130.7 71% 56–74 ✓
VCU @ Rhode Island -1.7 145.3 42% 81–57 ✓
George Mason @ St. Bonaventure +1.9 132.6 54% 75–62 ✗
Dayton @ Duquesne -0.7 140.0 46% 82–62 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Davidson +1.4 147.1 57% 78–61 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Western Michigan +10.3 146.1 85% 70–72 ✓
Kent State @ Toledo +1.0 138.3 53% 83–64 ✗
Bowling Green @ Miami (OH) +11.8 151.1 86% 76–84 ✓
Ball State @ Central Michigan +5.0 142.4 68% 82–80 ✗
Akron @ Buffalo -9.1 156.4 19% 90–58 ✓
Ohio State @ Purdue +7.7 142.9 74% 73–70 ✗
UTSA @ UAB +9.9 159.1 85% 78–81 ✓
Bradley @ Belmont -2.8 150.9 34% 89–77 ✓
UCF @ Iowa State +15.2 155.6 89% 83–108 ✓
Marquette @ Seton Hall -13.0 139.6 13% 76–59 ✓
East Carolina @ Tulsa -3.1 140.0 43% 85–76 ✓
Missouri State @ Northern Iowa +10.2 141.4 86% 68–79 ✓
Indiana State @ Illinois State +9.4 155.4 83% 81–85 ✓
UT Martin @ Tennessee State +0.7 148.6 45% 80–81 ✓
Missouri @ Texas -0.3 145.8 52% 53–61 ✗
Arizona State @ West Virginia +7.0 131.7 76% 65–57 ✗
Louisville @ SMU +2.7 154.2 63% 98–73 ✗
Arizona @ Oklahoma State -10.2 146.8 19% 92–78 ✓
North Carolina @ Wake Forest -0.9 142.1 49% 66–67 ✗
Minnesota @ Iowa +10.9 153.7 78% 72–67 ✗
Creighton @ DePaul -4.6 147.0 34% 73–49 ✓
Wisconsin @ UCLA +1.9 142.9 63% 83–85 ✓
Washington @ Oregon +11.3 145.9 85% 71–82 ✓
Wyoming @ UNLV +7.8 134.6 78% 63–61 ✗
BYU @ Colorado -2.3 142.9 44% 83–67 ✓
Utah @ Houston +15.8 135.0 85% 36–70 ✓
Army @ Holy Cross +2.1 144.1 58% 76–71 ✗
Furman @ VMI -6.2 141.8 31% 82–91 ✗
Robert Morris @ Youngstown State +1.6 145.7 58% 72–70 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.