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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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26–7 on winners spread MAE 6.2 33 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Xavier @ UConn +17.0 147.2 89% 60–92 ✓
Boston College @ Duke +25.0 137.1 91% 49–67 ✓
Ole Miss @ Tennessee +11.6 141.2 86% 66–84 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Illinois State +8.2 139.7 79% 54–50 ✗
VCU @ Fordham -7.6 139.7 25% 63–59 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Dayton +6.4 148.3 77% 70–72 ✓
Western Michigan @ Ohio +4.7 151.0 73% 71–91 ✓
Kent State @ Toledo +1.8 159.8 63% 75–72 ✗
Central Michigan @ Massachusetts +9.4 146.7 85% 89–95 ✓
Ball State @ Bowling Green +11.5 134.5 85% 52–77 ✓
South Carolina @ Texas +10.8 151.2 87% 75–84 ✓
St. John's @ DePaul -8.0 143.7 23% 68–56 ✓
Indiana State @ Evansville -0.5 143.4 49% 84–63 ✓
UIC @ Murray State +5.8 152.3 67% 74–81 ✓
Valparaiso @ Bradley +4.6 141.5 69% 65–72 ✓
La Salle @ Loyola Chicago -3.2 135.6 36% 61–71 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Lindenwood +3.2 133.6 63% 78–72 ✗
Little Rock @ UT Martin +11.8 132.4 86% 52–55 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Virginia +14.2 144.9 88% 47–67 ✓
Saint Louis @ Davidson -9.4 145.2 19% 91–82 ✓
Drake @ Belmont +11.8 153.3 87% 90–103 ✓
Nevada @ Boise State +3.9 145.6 67% 87–91 ✓
NC State @ SMU +2.1 160.4 62% 84–83 ✗
Air Force @ Grand Canyon +23.6 134.1 91% 57–81 ✓
Rutgers @ UCLA +11.9 144.0 87% 66–98 ✓
Indiana @ USC -0.3 147.1 57% 75–81 ✗
UNLV @ Fresno State +2.9 145.8 66% 96–98 ✓
Wyoming @ San Diego State +8.8 139.7 81% 63–72 ✓
Wofford @ VMI -10.0 148.8 16% 81–67 ✓
Western Carolina @ UNC Greensboro -0.1 155.4 51% 78–81 ✗
South Carolina Upstate @ UNC Asheville +4.8 136.2 70% 67–76 ✓
Seton Hall @ Villanova +6.1 132.8 70% 60–72 ✓
South Alabama @ App State +4.6 126.8 64% 57–65 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.