Don't talk to me about your big, big heroes "Kelly's Heroes" - Black Grape
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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33–28 on winners spread MAE 9.5 61 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
UCF @ Houston +11.4 146.3 86% 55–79 ✓
Michigan State @ Minnesota -11.2 131.8 18% 73–76 ✗
Notre Dame @ Louisville +14.7 152.9 88% 65–76 ✓
Bucknell @ American University +8.5 141.5 79% 60–59 ✗
George Washington @ Saint Joseph's -2.7 148.4 43% 73–76 ✗
Duquesne @ George Mason +7.0 145.7 78% 71–65 ✗
UTSA @ South Florida +23.8 155.5 91% 88–109 ✓
Tulsa @ Florida Atlantic -2.2 160.2 40% 78–76 ✓
Army @ Colgate +10.9 150.8 86% 55–69 ✓
Winthrop @ Radford -4.2 158.0 33% 80–78 ✓
Longwood @ Gardner-Webb -10.9 140.1 15% 86–66 ✓
Charleston Southern @ High Point +13.0 158.8 85% 55–80 ✓
Butler @ Providence +0.9 164.4 59% 87–97 ✓
Lehigh @ Loyola Maryland -0.1 145.7 51% 84–89 ✗
Navy @ Lafayette -5.1 136.4 24% 65–50 ✓
St. Thomas @ South Dakota State +0.5 150.6 51% 77–62 ✗
Youngstown State @ Purdue Fort Wayne +2.7 145.3 66% 90–61 ✗
Oakland @ Cleveland State -8.1 164.6 22% 78–91 ✗
Wright State @ Robert Morris -1.8 148.6 44% 66–72 ✗
Green Bay @ Northern Kentucky +4.6 148.5 71% 87–84 ✗
Furman @ East Tennessee State +5.9 143.5 75% 71–75 ✓
UL Monroe @ Old Dominion +11.6 150.7 85% 85–79 ✗
Southern Miss @ Marshall +9.9 144.3 83% 77–81 ✓
Louisiana @ James Madison +8.5 133.2 76% 64–61 ✗
Troy @ Georgia State -4.0 146.5 34% 74–63 ✓
Texas State @ Georgia Southern +2.9 146.2 66% 77–71 ✗
Arkansas State @ Coastal Carolina +0.8 148.1 54% 70–66 ✗
Texas A&M @ Alabama +5.5 173.9 70% 97–100 ✓
Liberty @ Delaware -10.6 134.7 18% 75–69 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Northwestern State +3.2 141.7 65% 74–68 ✗
Charlotte @ Wichita State +7.8 145.8 78% 64–74 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Grambling +5.2 143.6 74% 67–64 ✗
Creighton @ Georgetown +2.2 143.8 61% 68–76 ✓
North Alabama @ Central Arkansas +12.4 144.6 88% 60–81 ✓
Florida International @ Middle Tennessee +4.9 146.5 71% 88–84 ✗
UTEP @ Sam Houston +12.3 140.4 87% 66–70 ✓
New Mexico State @ Louisiana Tech -0.8 133.7 44% 72–63 ✓
North Texas @ Rice -2.2 133.3 35% 83–86 ✗
Colorado @ Baylor +5.5 155.8 75% 67–86 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ South Carolina State -4.5 126.0 28% 54–63 ✗
Georgia Tech @ California +10.6 144.1 85% 85–90 ✓
South Dakota @ Kansas City -4.2 153.2 30% 82–75 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Milwaukee +3.4 151.0 70% 76–63 ✗
Lipscomb @ Austin Peay +3.4 148.1 67% 76–87 ✓
Northwestern @ Illinois +14.8 148.3 87% 44–84 ✓
BYU @ Oklahoma State -4.6 159.1 32% 92–99 ✗
Arizona State @ Utah +0.5 156.5 57% 71–63 ✗
Oklahoma @ Kentucky +11.1 150.8 84% 78–94 ✓
Gonzaga @ Portland -15.6 146.1 13% 80–87 ✗
Clemson @ Stanford -2.1 135.7 39% 66–64 ✓
Santa Clara @ Pacific -5.0 146.2 33% 71–56 ✓
San Diego @ Saint Mary's +17.6 145.0 89% 60–87 ✓
Pepperdine @ Seattle U +11.1 132.3 85% 81–83 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ San Francisco +7.8 141.5 77% 84–75 ✗
Iowa @ Washington -0.2 137.8 51% 84–74 ✓
Utah State @ New Mexico +2.6 149.9 71% 86–66 ✗
Washington State @ Oregon State -2.3 146.3 41% 64–74 ✗
Vermont @ Maine -6.0 130.1 24% 70–76 ✗
Binghamton @ UMBC +13.6 137.2 89% 62–79 ✓
UAlbany @ Bryant +0.1 132.5 43% 65–63 ✗
Penn State @ Michigan +26.3 157.4 91% 69–110 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.