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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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20–7 on winners spread MAE 8.7 27 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Purdue @ Nebraska +3.9 142.2 66% 80–77 ✗
North Carolina @ Miami +1.6 149.8 62% 66–75 ✓
Virginia @ Florida State -6.0 150.7 26% 61–58 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Auburn -0.1 160.8 53% 84–76 ✓
BYU @ Baylor -0.2 157.0 51% 99–94 ✓
Rhode Island @ George Washington +5.0 147.7 67% 70–75 ✓
George Mason @ Richmond -1.4 137.3 40% 70–82 ✗
Fordham @ Saint Joseph's +3.6 131.7 67% 68–64 ✗
Notre Dame @ SMU +11.2 151.7 83% 81–89 ✓
Marquette @ Villanova +12.6 144.4 87% 74–77 ✓
Wisconsin @ Illinois +12.2 156.7 88% 92–90 ✗
Eastern Illinois @ Western Illinois -5.1 131.1 19% 70–79 ✗
Houston @ Utah -12.1 141.8 16% 66–52 ✓
Duke @ Pittsburgh -12.3 134.8 14% 70–54 ✓
Iowa State @ TCU -8.1 146.1 25% 55–62 ✗
Arkansas @ LSU -2.9 160.7 42% 91–62 ✓
Fresno State @ Utah State +16.3 146.1 89% 78–91 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Arizona State +1.5 156.9 59% 76–85 ✓
Colorado State @ Air Force -15.4 131.5 12% 91–74 ✓
Washington State @ Gonzaga +19.1 153.6 91% 53–83 ✓
San José State @ UNLV +7.7 147.9 80% 75–82 ✓
Iowa @ Maryland -12.3 140.7 15% 70–77 ✗
Colgate @ Holy Cross -5.1 141.3 28% 74–70 ✓
Boston University @ Army -1.1 144.3 41% 85–68 ✓
The Citadel @ Western Carolina +5.7 145.9 74% 49–87 ✓
VCU @ La Salle -11.8 141.5 17% 77–68 ✓
USC @ Ohio State +5.0 151.9 66% 82–89 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.