I don't know why I let that mean woman make me a fool. "Whipping Post" - The Allman Brothers
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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40–14 on winners spread MAE 8.6 54 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Cal State Bakersfield @ Cal Poly +10.3 162.8 86% 76–108 ✓
UT Arlington @ Abilene Christian -1.7 132.5 41% 64–57 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Idaho State +3.7 141.7 64% 65–73 ✓
Queens University @ Austin Peay +1.5 155.2 55% 90–83 ✗
Providence @ Georgetown +1.3 155.9 59% 79–80 ✓
Fresno State @ Grand Canyon +10.1 137.8 83% 60–85 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Cal State Northridge +3.0 160.6 73% 90–77 ✗
UC Davis @ UC Irvine +5.9 140.6 75% 69–79 ✓
Omaha @ North Dakota State +8.1 144.0 79% 50–74 ✓
Auburn @ Alabama +9.4 174.0 83% 84–96 ✓
Oklahoma @ Texas +5.6 156.7 75% 88–85 ✗
California Baptist @ Southern Utah -6.7 140.7 22% 82–75 ✓
Western Carolina @ Mercer +1.7 152.0 52% 77–73 ✗
Elon @ William & Mary +5.4 153.3 70% 62–72 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Siena +3.1 130.4 55% 58–63 ✓
UCLA @ USC -1.8 149.2 40% 89–68 ✓
Northwestern @ Minnesota +3.0 131.9 68% 66–67 ✓
UC San Diego @ UC Santa Barbara +0.2 143.2 53% 64–63 ✗
Utah Valley @ Utah Tech -3.9 145.0 33% 104–101 ✓
Portland @ San Francisco +3.9 143.8 66% 65–82 ✓
Morehead State @ Tennessee State +3.5 140.5 69% 67–93 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina +1.1 146.5 60% 96–72 ✗
Air Force @ Nevada +22.8 142.8 91% 59–74 ✓
Sacramento State @ Idaho +5.1 151.6 71% 45–68 ✓
Texas Tech @ BYU +1.1 157.3 54% 76–82 ✓
North Dakota @ St. Thomas +11.5 149.8 85% 67–66 ✗
Arizona @ Colorado -10.9 154.9 14% 89–79 ✓
Washington @ Oregon -1.2 138.4 49% 79–85 ✗
Seattle U @ Pacific -0.7 128.9 46% 58–61 ✗
Long Beach State @ Hawai'i +12.3 147.4 88% 84–75 ✗
Penn State @ Rutgers +3.4 150.3 70% 62–74 ✓
Colgate @ Lehigh +0.4 148.0 58% 69–76 ✓
Campbell @ UNC Wilmington +6.4 144.5 76% 85–70 ✗
Winthrop @ High Point +5.7 152.9 71% 76–91 ✓
Northern Iowa @ UIC -2.9 127.7 33% 84–69 ✓
Memphis @ Tulane -1.9 146.2 44% 96–95 ✓
Charlotte @ South Florida +14.5 157.0 88% 60–83 ✓
Boston University @ Navy +9.8 138.8 84% 73–72 ✗
Queens University @ Central Arkansas +2.2 154.4 60% 98–93 ✗
Illinois @ Maryland -17.3 144.9 14% 78–72 ✓
Temple @ Tulsa +13.7 152.4 88% 76–78 ✓
UTSA @ Rice +10.3 144.6 86% 71–80 ✓
East Carolina @ UAB +11.8 143.9 88% 83–90 ✓
Drexel @ Monmouth +1.7 131.6 59% 57–65 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Green Bay -1.4 142.7 45% 96–76 ✓
Western Carolina @ East Tennessee State +4.2 146.4 61% 67–69 ✓
Michigan State @ Michigan +12.3 147.9 85% 80–90 ✓
Iowa @ Nebraska +7.1 131.9 81% 75–84 ✓
Houston Christian @ LSU New Orleans +4.2 138.4 70% 60–73 ✓
Towson @ Charleston +1.6 128.4 59% 81–56 ✗
Southern Miss @ Troy +2.6 144.4 61% 70–78 ✓
Marist @ Merrimack +0.9 126.6 56% 57–58 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Furman +5.9 145.9 72% 75–81 ✓
Idaho State @ Portland State +5.1 139.4 68% 78–85 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.