← All models
Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
13–7 on winners
spread MAE 7.9
20 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Mexico
@
Fresno State
|
-11.1 | 159.7 | 16% | 103–89 | ✓ |
Boise State
@
Wyoming
|
-2.3 | 138.8 | 39% | 67–58 | ✓ |
Morehead State
@
Southern Indiana
|
+3.0 | 143.6 | 65% | 70–68 | ✗ |
Utah State
@
Nevada
|
+0.6 | 143.1 | 50% | 69–64 | ✗ |
Miami
@
Boston College
|
+0.1 | 148.1 | 52% | 68–78 | ✓ |
Youngstown State
@
IU Indianapolis
|
-2.7 | 139.9 | 36% | 77–61 | ✓ |
Purdue Fort Wayne
@
Northern Kentucky
|
-0.2 | 144.7 | 52% | 68–69 | ✗ |
UNC Greensboro
@
Wofford
|
+1.6 | 134.9 | 61% | 68–66 | ✗ |
VMI
@
East Tennessee State
|
+11.6 | 145.3 | 86% | 69–84 | ✓ |
Howard
@
Yale
|
+13.8 | 151.0 | 88% | 65–93 | ✓ |
Furman
@
Western Carolina
|
-13.6 | 135.6 | 15% | 90–61 | ✓ |
UConn
@
DePaul
|
-4.7 | 148.1 | 31% | 81–68 | ✓ |
California
@
Pittsburgh
|
+17.4 | 158.5 | 90% | 74–86 | ✓ |
Evansville
@
Southern Illinois
|
+8.4 | 136.6 | 81% | 68–53 | ✗ |
Rice
@
Tulsa
|
-4.1 | 138.8 | 34% | 70–64 | ✓ |
Drake
@
UIC
|
-4.3 | 131.4 | 31% | 70–74 | ✗ |
Chattanooga
@
Mercer
|
+1.8 | 152.4 | 58% | 94–99 | ✓ |
Stanford
@
Clemson
|
+8.7 | 144.6 | 81% | 71–85 | ✓ |
North Carolina
@
Louisville
|
+2.8 | 159.3 | 63% | 70–83 | ✓ |
Villanova
@
Butler
|
+3.6 | 146.8 | 64% | 73–65 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.